FNUS74 KLZK 281346 FWSLZK SPOT FORECAST FOR EAGLE LAKE 3A...SOUTH AR REFUGE COMPLEX FELSENTHAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 746 AM CST TUE FEB 28 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 CST ON FEBRUARY 28. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ARKANSAS TODAY AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TONIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS...ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE FRONT WILL NOT EXIT THE STATE UNTIL WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY FOR THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........66 AT IGNITION...MAX 72. RH..................79 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 70 PERCENT. CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 7 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS........SOUTH 12 TO 21 MPH INCREASING TO 24 TO 28 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......BECOMING 3500 FT MSL. STABILITY CLASS.....2. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WINDS SOUTHEAST AT 6 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 9 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. TIME (CST) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........CDY CDY CDY MC MC MC MC WEATHER COV.....SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC WEATHER TYPE....RW TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............66 68 69 71 72 71 71 RH..............79 77 74 71 70 72 73 20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..8 8 8 9 9 8 8 20 FT WIND GUST.10 15 15 15 15 15 15 EYE LVL WND DIR.SE SE SE SE S S S EYE LVL WND SPD.5 5 5 5 5 5 5 EYE LVL WND GST.5 8 8 8 8 8 8 TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.13 13 15 18 21 24 28 CHC OF PCPN (%).20 50 50 50 50 50 50 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 64. RH..................MAX 97 PERCENT. CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS........SOUTHWEST 30 TO 32 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......N/A. STABILITY CLASS.....4. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 8 TO 12 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN THE EVENING. TIME (CST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........MC MC CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............70 69 69 68 68 67 67 67 66 66 67 66 RH..............76 80 84 87 91 94 97 97 96 96 92 92 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..8 9 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 20 FT WIND GUST.20 20 25 25 25 25 25 15 15 15 15 15 EYE LVL WND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S S EYE LVL WND SPD.5 5 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 EYE LVL WND GST.10 10 13 13 13 13 13 8 8 8 8 8 TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S SW SW SW TRANSP WIND SPD.30 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 32 31 31 CHC OF PCPN (%).50 50 50 70 70 70 70 70 70 50 50 50 .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 78. RH..................MIN 52 PERCENT. CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....WEST WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS........SOUTHWEST 23 TO 31 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BECOMING 6300 FT MSL. STABILITY CLASS.....3. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH. TIME (CST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY MC MC MC MC MC WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............66 66 68 69 71 73 74 76 76 76 75 73 RH..............92 90 85 79 74 69 65 60 56 53 52 53 20 FT WIND DIR..S S SW SW SW SW SW SW W W W W 20 FT WIND SPD..12 12 12 12 12 12 12 10 10 9 8 7 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 10 10 10 EYE LVL WND DIR.S S SW SW SW SW SW SW W W W W EYE LVL WND SPD.7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 EYE LVL WND GST.8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 5 5 5 MIX HGT (KFT)... TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW TRANSP WIND SPD.31 30 29 28 26 25 24 24 23 23 23 23 CHC OF PCPN (%).50 50 50 30 30 30 20 20 20 20 20 20 $$ FORECASTER...B SMITH REQUESTED BY...AME NEW TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120228.EAGLE.01/LZK