FNUS73 KPAH 281808 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR HOMEPLACE...U.S. FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 1208 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1330 CST ON FEBRUARY 28. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A POTENT UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA TO NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATER TODAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...WARM AIR...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE HEARTLAND AS THE COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY RETURNS NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TODAY. IN ADVANCE OF THIS WARM FRONT...LOOK FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS WILL PUSH EAST TO COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION DURING THE EVENING. AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE QUAD STATE REGION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN PUSH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN BRIEFLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HEARTLAND REGION. A FEW OF THE STORMS ON FRIDAY MAY BECOME STRONG AT TIMES. FROM A FIRE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE...THE PASSAGE OF WEATHER SYSTEMS ON WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY WILL BRING IN MUCH DRIER AIR ON THURSDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL DROP MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. STRONGER TWENTY FOOT AND TRANSPORT WINDS AND A DEEPER MIXING LAYER ON THURSDAY MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO DRY OUT FINER FUELS BEFORE THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. RH..................47 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 42 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 6 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 6 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......900-2800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3100 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 1800-3300 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN DECREASING TO 1300 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 0 TO 8 MPH INCREASING TO 23 TO 29 MPH. TIME (CST) 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........MC MC MC MC MC WEATHER COV..... SCH WEATHER TYPE.... RW RH..............47 47 49 54 61 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 5 5 5 20 FT WIND GUST. 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (KFT)...3.1 2.8 2.3 1.8 1.3 TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.21 23 24 26 29 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. RH..................MAX 93 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 13 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING. MIXING HEIGHT.......900-1400 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 30 TO 39 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 51 TO 54 MPH. TIME (CST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY WEATHER COV.....S CHC CHANCE LIKELY OCNL OCNL OCNL WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RH..............67 70 73 78 78 84 20 FT WIND......S 5 S 6 S 7 S 8 S 9 S 10 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 20 20 25 MIX HGT (FT)....900 900 1100 1400 1300 1300 TRANSPORT WIND..S 30 S 36 S 41 S 47 S 51 SW 53 $$ FORECASTER...PACKETT REQUESTED BY...BILL RYAN TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120228.HOMEP.01/PAH