FNUS73 KPAH 281324 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR SHOP PILE...USFWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 724 AM CST TUE FEB 28 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0800 CST ON FEBRUARY 28. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... WINDS IN THE PRESCRIBED BURN AREA WILL GRADUALLY MOVE FROM THE EAST AT IGNITION TIME...TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH 1 PM CST...THEN SOUTH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. MIXING HEIGHTS SHOULD RISE ABOVE THE 1700 FOOT AGL MINIMUM BY 10 AM CST...SO SMOKE MANAGEMENT MAY BE AN ISSUE AT IGNITION TIME. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........38 AT IGNITION...MAX 64. RH..................69 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 40 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS EAST AT 6 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 2. MIXING HEIGHT.......1300 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 900-1900 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 0 TO 7 MPH INCREASING TO 21 TO 26 MPH. TIME (CST) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........PC PC PC MC MC MC MC MC CDY CDY WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............38 45 49 54 58 61 63 64 62 60 RH..............69 55 50 46 45 46 48 50 58 64 20 FT WIND DIR..E E SE SE SE SE S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (KFT)...1.3 1.5 1.7 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.1 0.9 TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.5 7 10 14 16 18 21 23 24 26 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 59. RH..................MAX 96 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 7 TO 16 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 15 TO 17 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. CWR.................50 PERCENT INCREASING TO 90 PERCENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......800-1400 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 29 TO 37 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 51 TO 52 MPH. TIME (CST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY WEATHER COV..... CHANCE OCNL OCNL OCNL OCNL WEATHER TYPE....NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............58 60 62 62 63 63 RH..............72 78 78 81 81 87 20 FT WIND......S 6 S 8 S 10 S 11 S 13 S 13 20 FT WIND GUST.10 20 25 25 30 30 MIX HGT (FT)....800 800 1100 1300 1300 1300 TRANSPORT WIND..S 29 S 33 S 39 S 44 SW 48 SW 52 CWR.............50 50 50 90 90 90 HAINES INDEX....2 2 2 2 3 3 .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 71. RH..................MIN 31 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 13 TO 16 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. CWR.................24 PERCENT DECREASING TO 0 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1600-3500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6100 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 45 TO 52 MPH DECREASING TO 31 TO 38 MPH. TIME (CST) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM SKY (%).........CLOUDY PCLDY MCLEAR CLEAR WEATHER COV.....CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE TEMP............63 67 69 68 RH..............90 68 45 36 20 FT WIND......SW 11G25 SW 12G25 W 12G30 W 13G30 MIX HGT (FT)....1600 3000 4500 5800 TRANSPORT WIND..W 52 W 41 W 31 W 35 CWR.............20 20 0 0 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 5 $$ FORECASTER...SMITH REQUESTED BY...ERIC PFEILSCHIFTER TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120228.SHOPP.01/PAH