FNUS75 KGJT 292205
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR BLACK RIDGE HAND PILES...BLM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
305 PM MST WED FEB 29 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 MST ON MARCH 01.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...THE NEXT PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND PASS ON FRIDAY. BRISK SOUTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO WEST IN THE AFTERNOON AS THEY MIX INTO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS AFTER
MIDNIGHT BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS. ON FRIDAY...
COLD NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DEEP MIXING. MOISTURE
WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT COLD AND STABLE
CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE NEXT STORM IS TIMED FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%). SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....35-40 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........43-48%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST 10-15 MPH SHIFTING TO WEST IN THE
                    AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH.
CLEARING INDEX......500 AT IGNITION TIME INCREASING TO 1000+.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20 MPH SHIFTING TO WEST 25 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (80-90%). SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
                    EVENING...THEN NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....11-16 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........74-79%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 10 MPH SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST 10-20
                    MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CLEARING INDEX......1000+.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6300 FT AGL DECREASING TO 3000 FT AGL TOWARDS
                    FRIDAY MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 25 MPH SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST 20 MPH.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%). SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
                    IN THE MORNING. CLEARING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....30-35 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........38-43%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 13 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 5
                    MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CLEARING INDEX......1000+.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 17 MPH INCREASING TO 28 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...JOE RAMEY
REQUESTED BY...MOAB FIRE CENTER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20120301.BLACK.01/GJT