FNUS75 KGJT 010527
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR CANY NP PILES...NPS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1027 PM MST WED FEB 29 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0930 MST ON MARCH 01.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MAKE FOR A DIFFICULT WIND FORECAST
TODAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL BE
SHIFTING MORE TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODELS
ARE HANDLING THIS FRONT SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT WITH ONE HANGING IT UP
TO THE NORTH OF THE BURN SITE LONGER...LEAVING STRONGER SOUTHERLY
WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH NOON. THE OTHER MODEL IS QUICKER TO PUSH FRONT
THROUGH WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTH BY NOON. WITH FAST UPPER FLOW BEING
WESTERLY...THE SLOWER SOLUTION SEEMS MORE LIKELY. SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE NEAR AND BEHIND THE FRONT ALLOWING FOR SOME BETTER MIXING
WITH CLEARING INDEX VALUES ABOVE 1000 EXPECTED BOTH TODAY AND
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP. WINDS WILL PICK UP
TOWARD SUNRISE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. THIS WILL LEAVE MAINLY NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%). ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
                    MORNING...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 45 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........31-36%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH A
                    FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. WINDS THEN TURNING WEST
                    TO NORTHWEST AROUND 1200 AT 10 TO 15 MPH...WITH A
                    FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH.
CLEARING INDEX......500 OR LESS THROUGH 1500 THEN INCREASING TO 1050
                    BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL OR LESS THROUGH 1100 THEN INCREASING
                    TO NEAR 8500 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 24 MPH.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (80-90%). SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....15-20 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........66-71%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH BECOMING TERRAIN DRIVEN
                    IN THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
                    WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH AROUND
                    0600.
CLEARING INDEX......1050 DECREASING TO 150 LATE IN THE
                    EVENING...THEN INCREASING TO 200 AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5400 FT AGL DECREASING TO 900-1200 FT AGL IN
                    THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 14 MPH.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70%) THEN BECOMING PARTLY
                    CLOUDY (50-60%). SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
                    MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....35-40 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........24-29%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.
CLEARING INDEX......250 INCREASING TO 1050 IN THE LATE MORNING AND
                    AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 11100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 21 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...DENNIS PHILLIPS
REQUESTED BY...JOANIE LAWRENCE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20120301.CANYN.01/GJT