FNUS73 KLSX 011350
FWSLSX

SPOT FORECAST FOR MERAMEC OVERLOOK...MISSOURI DEPARTMENT OF CONSERVATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
750 AM CST THU MAR 1 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 CST ON MARCH 01.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THIS MORNING
RESULTING IN WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AND STRENGTHENING
SOME THIS AFTERNOON.  RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP INTO THE 20S AGAIN TODAY HOWEVER THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
MUCH LOWER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY.  CONDITIONS WILL APPROACH
RED FLAG FOR A FEW HOURS IN AREAS JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST IN
CENTRAL MISSOURI.  THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE LATE TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY.


.REST OF TODAY...

TEMPERATURE.........50 AT IGNITION...MAX 67.
RH..................46 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 23 PERCENT.
WIND...EYE LEVEL....SOUTHWEST WIND AT 1 MPH AT IGNITION...
                    USING A 0.4 ADJUSTMENT FACTOR.
WIND...20 FT........WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 3 MPH AT IGNITION...
                    OTHERWISE LIGHT WIND DURING MID AND
                    LATE MORNING BECOMING SOUTH 6 TO 11 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1300 FT AGL AT IGNITION...
                    3100 FT AGL AT MAX HEATING.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTH AROUND 15 MPH.
VENTILATION RATE....POOR (6268 M 2/S) AT MAX HEATING.

.FRIDAY...

TEMPERATURE.........MAX 64.
RH..................MIN 42 PERCENT.
WIND...EYE LEVEL....SOUTHWEST WIND 2 TO 3 MPH UNTIL LATE MORNING
                    INCREASING TO AROUND 4 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING...
                    THEN SHIFTING TO THE WEST AROUND 5 MPH AROUND
                    MIDDAY THEN NORTHWEST 5 TO 7 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
WIND...20 FT........SOUTHWEST WIND 6 TO 8 MPH UNTIL LATE MORNING
                    INCREASING TO AROUND 9 MPH LATE IN THE
                    MORNING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE WEST AROUND 11
                    MPH AROUND MIDDAY SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
                    12 TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
                    UNTIL MIDDAY.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100 FT AGL AT MAX HEATING.
TRANSPORT WIND......WEST AROUND 29 MPH.
VENTILATION RATE....VERY GOOD (15994 M 2/S) AT MAX HEATING.

$$

FORECASTER...TES
REQUESTED BY...MARK JOHANSON
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20120301.MERAM.01/LSX