FNUS73 KPAH 292319 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR BENNETT ROAD EVANS POND...US FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 519 PM CST WED FEB 29 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 CST ON MARCH 01. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING IN RELATIVELY COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER THE ENTIRE HEARTLAND ON THURSDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 20S ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL DRY OUT THE VERY FINE...SHORT DURATION FUELS. HOWEVER...LARGER FUEL LOADS MAY STILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT WET FROM THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER...HOWEVER. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTHWARD FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE HEARTLAND DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL WORK INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS AROUND SUNSET FRIDAY...MOVING THROUGH THE ENTIRE HEARTLAND SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY MORNING. A BRIEF SPELL OF DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER SMALL DISTURBANCE MOVES QUICKLY THROUGH ON SUNDAY...BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL FALL INTO THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. DRY WEATHER WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........58 AT IGNITION...MAX 68. RH..................37 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 27 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 5 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4. MIXING HEIGHT.......2800 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 18 MPH INCREASING TO 22 TO 30 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CST) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........CLR CLR CLR MCR MCR MCR MCR WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............58 62 66 67 67 67 65 RH..............37 35 32 30 29 31 34 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..4 5 6 7 8 7 6 20 FT WIND GUST.5 10 10 15 15 15 15 MIX HGT (KFT)...2.8 2.9 2.8 2.5 2.2 1.8 1.5 TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.14 16 18 22 24 28 30 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 .THURSDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 52. RH..................MAX 96 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH. CWR.................0 PERCENT INCREASING TO 21 PERCENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......900-1800 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 28 TO 32 MPH. TIME (CST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........MCLEAR PCLDY PCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY WEATHER COV..... S CHC CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............63 59 57 56 55 54 RH..............38 47 55 62 74 86 20 FT WIND......S 6 S 6 S 5 S 5 S 4 S 4 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 5 5 MIX HGT (FT)....1200 1000 900 1000 1200 1600 TRANSPORT WIND..S 32 S 32 S 30 S 28 SW 28 SW 28 CWR.............0 0 0 20 20 20 HAINES INDEX....4 3 2 2 3 3 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 67. RH..................MIN 44 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 6 TO 12 MPH. CWR.................44 PERCENT DECREASING TO 0 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2000-3800 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1600 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 21 TO 28 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 17 TO 18 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CST) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM SKY (%).........CLOUDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............53 58 64 65 RH..............93 93 67 56 20 FT WIND......S 5 SW 8G15 SW 10G20 W 9G20 MIX HGT (FT)....2000 3200 3800 2600 TRANSPORT WIND..SW 28 SW 28 W 26 NW 21 CWR.............40 40 0 0 HAINES INDEX....4 4 3 4 $$ FORECASTER...MEFFERT REQUESTED BY...KEITH P KELLEY FMO TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120301.BENNE.01/PAH