FNUS73 KPAH 011203 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR BENNETT ROAD EVANS POND...US FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 603 AM CST THU MAR 1 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 CST ON MARCH 01. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... HERE IS A REVISED SPOT FORECAST FOR THE BENNETT ROAD AND EVANS POND PRESCRIBED BURN AREA. APPARENTLY THE WEDNESDAY DAY SHIFT RAISED HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE AFTERNOON FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST. THE FORECAST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES INCLUDED IN THIS SPOT FORECAST ARE SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS PROJECTED IN THE RECENT WEDNESDAY MORNING FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST. NOTE: FOR LEGAL PURPOSES...IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT A NEW SPOT FORECAST BE ISSUED AS A SEPARATE ISSUANCE. USING THE FEEDBACK OPTION MAY NOT ALLOW FOR A TIMELY ISSUANCE OF THE PRODUCT...AS THE FEEDBACK OPTION IS INTENDED TO SERVE AS INPUT FOR AN ALREADY COMPLETED PRESCRIBED BURN. DUE TO THE VARIABILITY AND RAPID CHANGES ASSOCIATED WITH WEATHER CONDITIONS PRIOR TO SPRING GREEN UP...IT IS ALSO RECOMMENDED TO SUBMIT A SPOT FORECAST CLOSER TO THE ACTUAL IGNITION TIME /USUALLY LESS THAN 12 HOURS/ TO ASSURE THAT MORE LOCALIZED AND SHORT TERM WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE SPOT FORECAST. THE FOLLOWING IS THE GENERAL DISCUSSION OF WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND BEYOND. FUEL MOISTURES BETWEEN 8 AND 10 PERCENT...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE MIDDLE 20 PERCENT RANGE AND SOUTHERLY WINDS APPROACHING 15 MPH MAY ELEVATE FIRE DANGER OVER PART OF THE SOUTHEAST MISSOURI FOOTHILLS THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE WEST OF A VAN BUREN TO GATEWOOD MISSOURI LINE...MAINLY BETWEEN 1 AND 4 PM CST. IN THE WEATHER PICTURE...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED THROUGH THE HEARTLAND ON WEDNESDAY WILL RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM CST THURSDAY. THE MOISTURE AND LIFT MOVING OVER THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT. BASED ON THE LATEST STORM PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOK...A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME HAIL. DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER ILLINOIS WILL DEEPEN AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE HEARTLAND DURING THE DAY. SOME OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY BECOME STRONG AND COULD INCREASINGLY BECOME SEVERE AS THEY MOVE INTO MORE UNSTABLE AIR OVER WEST KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA DURING THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL MARK A SUBTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND. A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND THE PENNYRILE REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY ON SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL THEN ENSUE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN MOVING IN NEXT WEDNESDAY. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........59 AT IGNITION...MAX 68. RH..................32 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 21 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 5 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4. MIXING HEIGHT.......2700 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 1200-3100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3200-3300 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 17 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 30 MPH. TIME (CST) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........CLR MCR CLR CLR CLR CLR MCR WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............59 63 65 66 67 67 66 RH..............32 29 27 26 26 28 33 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..4 5 6 7 8 7 6 20 FT WIND GUST.5 10 10 20 20 20 10 MIX HGT (KFT)...2.7 2.9 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.3 TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.15 17 20 22 24 28 30 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (20-30 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 53. RH..................MAX 100 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 7 MPH. CWR.................0 PERCENT INCREASING TO 21 PERCENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1300-3200 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1100-1200 FT AGL EARLY IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 31 TO 40 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 41 TO 43 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. TIME (CST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........MCLEAR MCLEAR PCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY WEATHER COV..... S CHC CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............64 60 57 53 54 54 RH..............38 47 57 74 80 90 20 FT WIND......S 6 S 6 S 5 S 5 S 5 S 5 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)....3200 2800 2200 1700 1300 1100 TRANSPORT WIND..S 31 S 36 S 39 S 41 SW 43 SW 43 CWR.............0 0 0 20 20 20 HAINES INDEX....4 4 3 3 3 3 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 68. RH..................MIN 40 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 6 TO 12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH. CWR.................33 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1300-3100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3600-4800 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 33 TO 41 MPH BECOMING NORTHWEST 22 TO 31 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CST) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM SKY (%).........CLOUDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............54 59 63 66 RH..............96 90 67 45 20 FT WIND......S 5G10 SW 8G20 SW 10G25 W 10G25 MIX HGT (FT)....1300 2600 4000 4700 TRANSPORT WIND..SW 41 W 37 W 31 NW 25 CWR.............30 30 30 30 HAINES INDEX....3 4 4 4 $$ FORECASTER...SMITH REQUESTED BY...KEITH P KELLEY FMO TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120301.BENNE.01/PAH