FNUS73 KPAH 010346 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR TRAIL OF TEARS BOUTIN UNIT...MISSOURI DEPT OF CONSERVATION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 946 PM CST WED FEB 29 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 CST ON MARCH 01. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION TODAY /WEDNESDAY/...BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL QUICKLY FALL INTO THE 30 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DRY OUT THE VERY FINE...SHORT DURATION FUELS. HOWEVER...LARGER FUEL LOADS MAY STILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT WET FROM THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. HOWEVER... WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTHWARD FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE HEARTLAND DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL WORK INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS AROUND SUNSET FRIDAY...MOVING THROUGH THE ENTIRE HEARTLAND SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY MORNING. A BRIEF SPELL OF DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER SMALL DISTURBANCE MOVES QUICKLY THROUGH ON SUNDAY...BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL FALL INTO THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. DRY WEATHER WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-5 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........49 AT IGNITION...MAX 66. RH..................56 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 32 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS WEST AT 4 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT...THEN BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 7 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4. MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL AT IGNITION...INCREASING TO 3600 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 21 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 20 TO 23 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CST) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............49 53 57 60 64 65 65 64 63 RH..............56 46 38 33 28 27 27 36 39 20 FT WIND DIR..W W SW SW SW S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..3 3 3 4 5 5 6 6 6 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (KFT)...2.0 2.2 2.5 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.6 TRANSP WIND DIR.W W SW SW SW SW S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.14 12 10 10 12 14 17 20 23 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 .THURSDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (20-30 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 49. RH..................MAX 100 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 7 MPH. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1900-3500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 500-1400 FT AGL LATE IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 25 TO 29 MPH. TIME (CST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........CLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR PCLDY PCLDY MCLDY WEATHER COV..... S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............61 57 55 53 52 51 RH..............44 49 55 64 71 83 20 FT WIND......S 6 S 6 S 6 S 6 S 5 S 5 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)....3500 2800 1900 1000 600 500 TRANSPORT WIND..S 25 S 28 S 29 S 29 S 29 SW 26 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....4 3 2 2 3 3 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 71. RH..................MIN 55 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH INCREASING TO 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CWR.................57 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......700-2500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2900-3400 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 28 TO 36 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 24 TO 28 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CST) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM SKY (%).........MCLDY CLOUDY CLOUDY MCLDY WEATHER COV.....LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............50 58 66 69 RH..............100 93 73 63 20 FT WIND......S 6G10 S 9G20 SW 11G25 SW 12G30 MIX HGT (FT)....700 1700 2900 3300 TRANSPORT WIND..SW 28 SW 36 SW 41 W 32 CWR.............60 60 60 60 HAINES INDEX....4 4 3 3 $$ FORECASTER...MEFFERT REQUESTED BY...BOB GILLESPIE TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120301.TRAIL.01/PAH