FNUS71 KCTP 021606 FWSCTP SPOT FORECAST FOR TURKEY TRAIL TRAINING...BOF, FD#6 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1106 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1028 EST ON MARCH 03. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE. .DISCUSSION... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY THIS AFTERNOON TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE AT TIMES...MAINLY EARLY EVENING. LOW STRATO CU WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 MPH WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DECOUPLING AROUND MIDNIGHT. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THREAT WILL CEASE BY MID EVENING. COLDER AIR AND A RATHER STRONG GUSTY WESTERLY WIND WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S THIS AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE RH/S IN THE 50 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE. THERE WILL BE THE GUSTY WINDS SO THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT IN DRYING OF FINE FUELS...WHICH WILL HELP TO ELEVATE THE POTENTIAL FOR WILDFIRE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL ALLEVIATE ANY POTENTIAL THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY PROVIDING A SHOT OF COLDER AIR AND NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS. .SATURDAY... LAL.................NO TSTMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......4100-5600 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 5800-6400 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 40 TO 47 MPH. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EST) 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM MIX HGT (FT)........4100 5600 6400 6200 TRANSPORT WIND......W 40 W 45 W 47 W 46 LAL.................1 1 1 1 HAINES INDEX........4 4 4 4 .SATURDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 30. MAX HUMIDITY........67 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 17 TO 24 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...DIMINISHING TO 12 TO 14 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING. LAL.................NO TSTMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......4100-5300 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 36 TO 45 MPH...DECREASING TO 30 TO 35 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............40 58 58 58 83 83 WEATHER COV......... S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE SNSHWR SNSHWR SNSHWR SNSHWR TSTM COV............ TEMP................41 41 38 36 34 33 RH..................62 62 64 66 67 67 20 FT WIND..........W 24 W 22 W 17 W 14 W 13 W 12 20 FT WIND GUST.....40 35 30 20 20 20 MIX HGT (FT)........5300 4700 4700 4800 4600 4200 TRANSPORT WIND......W 45 W 41 W 37 W 35 W 32 W 31 LAL.................1 1 1 1 1 1 HAINES INDEX........4 3 3 3 3 3 .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 42. MIN HUMIDITY........40 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 11 TO 16 MPH. LAL.................NO TSTMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......MISSING. TRANSPORT WINDS..... HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EST) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............83 96 96 96 96 96 WEATHER COV.........S CHC LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY WEATHER TYPE........SNSHWR SNSHWR SNSHWR SNSHWR SNSHWR SNSHWR TSTM COV............ TEMP................31 32 36 38 41 40 RH..................66 60 52 46 42 42 20 FT WIND..........W 12 W 10 W 14 W 16 W 15 W 13 20 FT WIND GUST.....20 15 15 20 20 15 MIX HGT (FT)........M M M M M M TRANSPORT WIND......M M M M M M LAL.................1 1 1 1 1 1 HAINES INDEX........3 3 4 4 4 3 $$ FORECASTER...WFO CTP REQUESTED BY...RICK MEINTEL TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120303.TURKE.01/CTP