FNUS72 KJAX 031241 FWSJAX SPOT FORECAST FOR PPP...FLORIDA FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 741 AM EST SAT MAR 3 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 EST ON MARCH 03. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT SUNDAY AFTERNOON... .DISCUSSION... WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH STORM TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES EXPECTED. THE FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH RAINFALL ENDING IN THE MORNING AND CONDITIONS BECOMING WINDY AND DRIER AND RED FLAG CONDITIONS MAY BE MET DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS FALLING TO 25 TO 35 PERCENT. ON MONDAY... DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS FALLING TO AROUND 30 PERCENT AND THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER POSSIBLE RED FLAG EVENT ACROSS THE REGION. ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AND WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE MOISTURE LEVELS AND RED FLAG EVENTS ARE NOT EXPECTED. BREEZY WINDS WILL EXIST MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 84. MIN HUMIDITY........54 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 14 MPH INCREASING TO 15 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2. MIXING HEIGHT.......600-2200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2300-3000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 16 TO 25 MPH. DISPERSION INDEX....60. CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT. TIME (EST) 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM SKY (%).........53 57 62 61 56 WEATHER COV..... CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............74 80 83 84 81 RH..............81 66 57 54 57 20 FT WIND......SW 14 SW 17 SW 18 SW 17 SW 15 20 FT WIND GUST.20 25 30 25 25 MIX HGT (FT)....1600 2200 3000 2800 2300 TRANSPORT WIND..SW 22 SW 24 SW 25 SW 25 SW 24 DISPERSION INDX.45 49 60 58 50 CHC OF PCPN (%).0 10 30 40 40 LAL.............1 1 2 2 2 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 53. MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 14 TO 17 MPH. LAL.................2 UNTIL 1900...THEN 3 UNTIL 2100...THEN 2 UNTIL 2200...THEN 3 UNTIL 0200...THEN 4 UNTIL 0500...THEN 5. MIXING HEIGHT.......700-1800 FT AGL. MIXING WINDS........WEST 20 TO 25 MPH. DISPERSION INDEX....20. CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT. LVORI...............5. TIME (EST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........52 56 67 80 89 94 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............76 67 62 59 57 54 RH..............65 87 100 100 100 100 20 FT WIND......SW 15 SW 14 SW 15 SW 16 SW 16 SW 16 20 FT WIND GUST.25 20 20 25 25 25 MIX HGT (FT)....1800 800 700 800 900 1000 TRANSPORT WIND..SW 23 SW 22 SW 20 SW 21 SW 22 SW 23 LVORI...........5 5 5 5 5 5 DISPERSION INDX.42 20 18 19 20 21 CHC OF PCPN (%).30 30 30 40 60 70 LAL.............2 3 3 3 4 4 .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT). SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 62. MIN HUMIDITY........36 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 17 TO 21 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1800-3700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3500-4100 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 25 TO 33 MPH. DISPERSION INDEX....87. $$ FORECASTER...SHASHY REQUESTED BY...JASON LONGFELLOW TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120303.PPP__.01/JAX