FNUS75 KBOU 051316 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR FIREMANS HILL...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 615 AM MST MON MAR 5 2012 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. ...RED FLAG CONDITIONS AT THE FIRE SITE THIS AFTERNOON... .DISCUSSION...GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL REDEVELOP THIS MORNING. THE AIR ALOFT IS VERY DRY...AND THE HUMIDITY WILL PLUMMET WITH THE MIXING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. A RED FLAG WARNING WAS NOT ISSUED THIS MORNING DUE TO THE LOCALIZED NATURE OF THE WINDS...BUT RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT THE FIRE LOCATION FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH LIMITED HUMIDITY RECOVERY...AND NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COLDER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW WILL ARRIVE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-62. MIN HUMIDITY........10-15%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST 8-15 MPH BECOMING WEST 12-22 MPH BY 1000. GUSTS TO 35 MPH AFTER 1200. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 25 MPH INCREASING TO 35 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......RISING TO 4000 FT AGL BY 1000 AND 7000 FT AGL BY 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900...THEN VERY GOOD. EXCELLENT AFTER 1200. HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR. MIN TEMPERATURE.....37-42. MAX HUMIDITY........30-35%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......BREEZY. WEST WINDS 17-27 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 29-40 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......LOWERING TO 3000 FT AGL BY 2000. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2400. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 1900...THEN GOOD. POOR AFTER 2400. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(30-40%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....57-60. MIN HUMIDITY........14-18%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......BREEZY. SOUTHWEST WINDS 18-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 21-32 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......RISING TO 4000 FT AGL BY 0900 AND 7000 FT AGL BY 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1100...THEN EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. MUCH COLDER. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 7 MPH. .THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 1800. LOWS AROUND 20. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR FIREMANSHILL. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 03/05-06 3 0 0 33 32 W 9 15 5 1 W37 306 W18 5110 P 03/05-07 4 0 0 31 36 W 9 14 5 1 W36 348 W21 6330 P 03/05-08 4 0 0 35 32 W 9 15 5 1 W33 390 W22 7549 P 03/05-09 4 0 0 40 28 W12 18 5 1 W32 1664 W28 50284 F 03/05-10 4 0 0 45 24 W15 23 4 1 W31 2938 W32 93018 G 03/05-11 8 0 0 49 22 W17 28 4 1 W30 4213 W37 135753 V 03/05-12 8 0 0 52 19 W20 31 4 1 W30 4957 W38 163411 E 03/05-13 8 0 0 54 18 W21 32 4 1 W31 5702 W38 191069 E 03/05-14 8 0 0 55 17 W21 33 4 1 W32 6447 W39 218727 E 03/05-15 8 0 0 55 17 W21 33 4 1 W35 6210 W39 212558 E 03/05-16 8 0 0 53 18 W20 32 4 1 W37 5973 W40 206389 E 03/05-17 15 0 0 53 19 W18 30 4 1 W39 5736 W40 200221 E 03/05-18 15 0 0 50 20 W16 25 4 1 W40 4488 W40 156154 E 03/05-19 15 0 0 46 23 W14 22 4 1 W40 3239 W39 112087 V 03/05-20 15 0 0 42 25 W13 21 4 1 W39 1991 W39 68020 G 03/05-21 15 0 0 40 26 W14 22 4 1 W39 1595 W38 53497 F 03/05-22 15 0 0 39 27 W16 25 4 1 W38 1199 W37 38973 P 03/05-23 13 0 0 38 28 W18 30 4 1 W38 804 W35 24450 P 03/06-00 13 0 0 38 29 W22 35 4 1 W39 713 W35 21258 P 03/06-01 13 0 0 37 29 W24 38 4 1 W39 622 W33 18065 P 03/06-02 13 0 0 37 30 W25 40 4 1 W41 531 W32 14873 P 03/06-03 13 0 0 36 31 W24 38 4 1 W41 550 W30 14335 P 03/06-04 13 0 0 36 32 W21 33 4 1 W43 569 W28 13798 P 03/06-05 13 0 0 36 34 W18 30 4 1 W45 588 W26 13261 P 03/06-06 26 0 0 36 36 W17 28 4 1 W49 812 W26 18343 P 03/06-07 26 0 0 37 38 W16 25 4 1 W55 1037 W26 23425 P 03/06-08 26 0 0 40 36 W15 24 4 1 W62 1261 W26 28507 P 03/06-09 26 0 0 45 31 SW16 25 4 1 W60 2742 SW20 64933 G 03/06-10 26 0 0 51 26 SW17 29 3 1 W61 4565 SW25 118424 V 03/06-11 30 0 0 52 25 SW20 31 3 1 W61 6388 SW31 171915 E 03/06-12 30 0 0 55 23 SW22 35 3 1 W61 7042 SW32 194473 E 03/06-13 30 0 0 57 20 SW23 37 3 1 W60 7696 SW32 217030 E 03/06-14 30 0 0 57 20 SW23 37 3 1 W60 8349 SW33 239587 E 03/06-15 30 0 0 57 19 SW21 32 3 1 W59 7896 SW30 207259 E 03/06-16 30 0 0 57 19 SW16 26 2 1 W59 7442 SW26 174930 E 03/06-17 44 10 2 54 20 SW13 21 2 1 W58 6988 SW23 142602 V 03/06-18 44 10 2 47 27 W 9 15 2 1 SW56 5662 SW20 104873 V 03/06-19 44 10 2 45 30 W 7 7 2 1 SW55 4336 SW15 67144 G 03/06-20 44 10 2 45 32 W 6 6 2 1 SW54 3010 SW12 29414 P 03/06-21 44 10 2 42 36 W 6 6 2 1 SW53 2160 SW10 20672 P 03/06-22 44 10 2 40 40 W 7 7 2 1 SW52 1311 SW 9 11929 P 03/06-23 67 18 4 38 43 W 8 13 2 1 SW51 461 W 8 3186 P 03/07-00 67 18 4 29 63 W 8 14 2 1 SW49 399 W 6 2340 P 03/07-01 67 18 4 28 68 NW 8 14 2 1 SW48 336 N 5 1494 P 03/07-02 67 18 4 27 69 N 8 13 2 1 SW48 274 N 2 648 P 03/07-03 67 18 4 25 67 N 7 7 2 1 SW47 1009 NE 5 7091 P 03/07-04 67 18 4 26 59 NE 7 7 2 1 SW47 1743 E 7 13534 P 03/07-05 83 31 10 26 54 NE 6 6 2 1 SW46 2478 E 9 19977 P 03/07-06 83 31 10 26 55 E 6 6 2 1 SW45 2836 E 9 22723 P 03/07-07 83 31 10 26 58 E 6 6 2 1 SW44 3195 E 9 25469 P 03/07-08 83 31 10 28 56 E 6 6 2 1 SW41 3553 E 9 28216 P 03/07-09 83 31 10 29 54 E 6 6 2 1 SW40 3958 E 8 27289 P 03/07-10 83 31 10 31 52 E 7 7 2 1 S39 4362 SE 7 26362 P 03/07-11 72 31 10 32 52 E 7 7 2 1 S38 4767 SE 6 25436 P 03/07-12 72 31 10 33 50 E 8 8 2 1 S35 5092 SE 7 28198 P 03/07-13 72 31 10 33 49 E 8 14 2 1 SW31 5416 SE 7 30961 P 03/07-14 72 31 10 33 48 E 9 15 2 1 SW26 5740 SE 7 33723 P 03/07-15 72 31 10 33 48 E10 16 2 1 SW23 5791 E 7 32449 P 03/07-16 72 31 10 33 47 E10 17 2 1 SW20 5842 E 6 31175 P 03/07-17 69 27 7 32 50 E10 16 2 1 SW16 5894 E 6 29901 P 03/07-18 69 27 7 29 57 NE 8 13 2 1 W14 5659 E 6 30325 P 03/07-19 69 27 7 28 61 N 5 5 2 1 W13 5425 NE 7 30750 P 03/07-20 69 27 7 28 62 N 2 2 2 1 NW13 5190 NE 7 31174 P 03/07-21 69 27 7 27 66 CALM 1 2 1 NW10 5034 NE 7 32154 P 03/07-22 69 27 7 26 69 NW 2 2 2 1 N 9 4877 NE 8 33134 P 03/07-23 52 20 4 25 71 NW 2 2 2 1 N 8 4721 N 8 34114 P 03/08-00 52 20 4 22 81 NW 2 2 2 1 N10 4075 N 8 29294 P 03/08-01 52 20 4 21 81 NW 3 3 2 1 N14 3430 N 8 24473 P 03/08-02 52 20 4 21 81 NW 3 3 2 1 N17 2785 N 8 19653 P 03/08-03 52 20 4 20 81 NW 3 3 2 1 N21 2880 N 8 20486 P 03/08-04 52 20 4 21 79 N 2 2 2 1 N23 2976 N 8 21319 P 03/08-05 43 15 3 21 75 N 2 2 2 1 N26 3072 N 8 22152 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.1 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E- EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...GIMMESTAD REQUESTED BY...SCOTT MOLINARI REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20120305.FIREM.01/BOU