FNUS73 KLSX 051533
FWSLSX

SPOT FORECAST FOR QUARY HOLLOW...MODNR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
933 AM CST MON MAR 5 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 CST ON MARCH 05.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS.  WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST AND THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY ALONG WITH UNSEASONABLY
WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.  THESE CONDITIONS ALONG WITH HUMIDITY
VALUES AT OR BELOW 25 PERCENT WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST HEIGHTENED
FIRE DANGERS AND PERHAPS RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY.  THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN IS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA.


.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........44 AT IGNITION...MAX 46.
RH..................38 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 31 PERCENT.
WIND...EYE LEVEL....SOUTHWEST WIND AT 1 MPH AT IGNITION...
                    OTHERWISE LIGHT WIND IN THE LATE MORNING AND
                    EARLY AFTERNOON BECOMING SOUTH 2 TO 3 MPH DURING
                    THE AFTERNOON...USING A 0.3 ADJUSTMENT FACTOR.
WIND...20 FT........WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 3 MPH AT IGNITION...
                    OTHERWISE LIGHT WIND IN THE LATE MORNING AND
                    EARLY AFTERNOON BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 8 MPH DURING
                    THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL AT IGNITION...
                    3900 FT AGL AT MAX HEATING.
TRANSPORT WIND......WEST AROUND 5 MPH.
VENTILATION RATE....POOR (2466 M 2/S) AT MAX HEATING.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 37.
RH..................MAX 72 PERCENT.
WIND...EYE LEVEL....SOUTH WIND 3 TO 5 MPH.
WIND...20 FT........SOUTH WIND 8 TO 13 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........N/A.
MIXING HEIGHT.......N/A.
TRANSPORT WIND......N/A.
VENTILATION RATE....N/A.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 72.
RH..................MIN 24 PERCENT.
WIND...EYE LEVEL....SOUTH WIND 5 TO 6 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 10 MPH
                    UNTIL LATE MORNING INCREASING TO 6 TO 8 MPH
                    WITH GUSTS TO 12 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND
                    AFTERNOON.
WIND...20 FT........WINDY. SOUTH WIND 13 TO 19 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 30 MPH UNTIL LATE MORNING INCREASING TO
                    19 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH IN THE
                    LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100 FT AGL AT MAX HEATING.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTHWEST AROUND 40 MPH.
VENTILATION RATE....VERY GOOD (22561 M 2/S) AT MAX HEATING.

$$

FORECASTER...TES
REQUESTED BY...BRUCE SCHUETTE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20120305.QUARY.01/LSX