FNUS73 KLSX 131458
FWSLSX

SPOT FORECAST FOR BAY POND...MARK TWAIN NATIONAL FOREST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
958 AM CDT TUE MAR 13 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 CDT ON MARCH 13.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TODAY.  THE
WIND WILL CONTINUE TO VEER MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY...AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE.  THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH A NUMBER OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA EACH DAY FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
TEMPERATURE.........70 AT IGNITION...MAX 81.
RH..................49 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 31 PERCENT.
WIND...EYE LEVEL....WINDS SOUTH AROUND 2 MPH AT IGNITION...AND
                    ALSO FOR THE AFTERNOON USING WIND FACTOR
                    ADJUSTMENT OF 0.3.
WIND...20 FT........WINDS SOUTH AT 5 MPH AT IGNITION...BECOMING
                    SOUTH 5 TO 7 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2600 FT AT IGNITION...4100 FT AGL AT
                    MAX HEATING.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTH AROUND 8 MPH.
VENTILATION RATE....POOR (4462 M 2/S) AT MAX HEATING.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 60.
RH..................MAX 86 PERCENT.
WIND...EYE LEVEL....SOUTH WIND AROUND 2 MPH USING THE WIND
                    FACTOR ADJUSTMENT OF 0.3.
WIND...20 FT........SOUTH WIND 5 TO 7 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........N/A.
MIXING HEIGHT.......N/A.
TRANSPORT WIND......N/A.
VENTILATION RATE....N/A.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................30 PERCENT.
LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 1300...THEN 9-15 STRIKES.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 80.
RH..................MIN 46 PERCENT.
WIND...EYE LEVEL....SOUTH WIND 2 TO 4 MPH USING THE WIND ADJUSTMENT
                    FACTOR OF 0.3. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WIND...20 FT........SOUTH WIND 8 TO 13 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4400 FT AGL AT MAX HEATING.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTHWEST AROUND 21 MPH.
VENTILATION RATE....GOOD (12333 M 2/S) AT MAX HEATING.

$$

FORECASTER...GKS
REQUESTED BY...CHARLENE NAZARENKO
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20120313.BAYPO.01/LSX