FNUS71 KBGM 140810 FWSBGM SPOT FORECAST FOR FE WALTER - WSG...PA GAME COMMISSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON, NY 410 AM EDT WED MAR 14 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 EDT ON MARCH 14. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL YIELD A SUNNY DAY. DURING PEAK MIXING HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...VERY DRY AIR WILL MIX DOWN AND DROP RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS BELOW 30 PERCENT. TERRAIN EFFECTS...WITH WIND ATTEMPTING TO RIDE UP THE SUNLIT SOUTH FACING SLOPE...WILL SOMEWHAT OPPOSE THE RIDGETOP WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. SO THE BURN AREA CAN EXPECT AN AVERAGE DIRECTION FROM THE WEST...BUT WITH TERRAIN DRIVEN FLUCTUATIONS. WATCH OUT FOR OCCASIONAL ERRATIC GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH DURING PEAK MIXING THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ON THURSDAY...WARMER BUT ALSO WITH A BIT MORE HUMIDITY...AND SOMEWHAT LIGHTER WINDS...THIS TIME FROM THE SOUTH. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-5 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 61. MIN HUMIDITY........27 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........ SLOPE/VALLEY.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 13 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......600-1200 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3500-4200 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN DECREASING TO 1300 FT AGL LATE. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 21 TO 26 MPH. LAL.................1. MIXING HEIGHT.......600-1200 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3500-4200 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN DECREASING TO 1300 FT AGL LATE. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 21 TO 26 MPH. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (13900-27000 KNOT-FT)...INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (73200-79300 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN DECREASING TO FAIR (22600 KNOT-FT) LATE. TIME (EDT) 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM SKY (%).............2 1 1 1 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE TSTM COV............ TEMP................52 57 60 60 RH..................52 40 31 27 20 FT WIND..........W 5 W 6 W 8 W 7 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 15 18 17 LAL.................1 1 1 1 HAINES INDEX........5 5 5 5 VRATE KT-FT/1000....73 73 79 23 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT). MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 42. MAX HUMIDITY........70 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........ SLOPE/VALLEY.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1300 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 17 TO 23 MPH. LAL.................1. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1300 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 17 TO 23 MPH. HAINES INDEX........5 EARLY TO 3 LATE...OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH EARLY...TO VERY LOW POTENTIAL LATE. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR EARLY...THEN POOR (22600 KNOT-FT EARLY TO 3600 KNOT-FT LATE). TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............1 1 5 7 12 28 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TSTM COV............ TEMP................56 55 51 47 45 42 RH..................31 35 44 53 60 70 20 FT WIND..........W 6 W 4 NW 2 NW 2 N 1 NE 1 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 10 5 5 LAL.................1 1 1 1 1 1 HAINES INDEX........5 4 4 4 3 4 VRATE KT-FT/1000....23 5 5 5 5 5 .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 66. MIN HUMIDITY........39 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........ SLOPE/VALLEY.......LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-600 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 2800-3600 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 17 MPH. LAL.................1. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-600 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 2800-3600 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 17 MPH. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR EARLY...THEN GOOD (3300 KNOT FT EARLY TO 36900 KNOT-FT IN AFTERNOON). TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............34 39 48 52 55 60 WEATHER COV......... SLT CHC WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE SHWR TSTM COV............ TEMP................42 46 53 59 63 66 RH..................70 65 54 49 43 40 20 FT WIND..........E 1 SE 2 SE 3 S 5 S 6 S 6 20 FT WIND GUST..... 5 5 10 15 15 LAL.................1 1 1 1 1 1 HAINES INDEX........4 4 3 3 3 3 VRATE KT-FT/1000....4 3 3 6 33 33 $$ FORECASTER...PELLERITO REQUESTED BY...PATRICK MCELHENNY TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120314.FEWAL.01/BGM