FNUS71 KAKQ 141956 FWSAKQ SPOT FORECAST FOR MALVERN HILL RX...NPS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 356 PM EDT WED MAR 14 2012 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD DIP BELOW 30 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS DEEP INSTABILITY AIDS MIXING DURING THAT TIME. ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...WITH PRECIPITATION BECOMING SHUNTED SOUTHEAST OF THE BURN AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNSEASONABLY WARM...ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FROM FALLING TOWARD CRITICAL VALUES (BELOW 30 PERCENT) FRIDAY AFTERNOON. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....72 TO 76 AT IGNITION. MAX TEMP 80-84. MIN HUMIDITY........40 TO 45 PERCENT AT IGNITION. MINIMUM 26 TO 31 PERCENT. WIND (20FT/2MIN)....VARIABLE 3 TO 5 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH 6 TO 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. WAVE HEIGHT.........DOES NOT APPLY FOR INLAND AREAS. DOMINANT PERIOD.....DOES NOT APPLY FOR INLAND AREAS. CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......1900-2900 FT AGL AT IGNITION...INCREASING TO 5300-7000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 3 TO 7 MPH...INCREASING TO 10 TO 14 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).............1 1 1 7 7 7 17 17 17 29 29 29 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........ TSTM COV............ TEMP................54 55 56 60 66 75 80 81 82 83 84 83 RH..................86 86 83 75 63 45 36 34 33 31 30 30 CHC OF PCPN (%).....0 0 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (KFT).......0.3 0.3 0.3 1.1 1.9 2.7 4.0 5.3 6.6 6.7 6.9 7.0 20 FT WIND DIR......SW SW SW SW SW SW SW S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD......3 2 2 3 3 3 5 6 6 7 7 7 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 5 5 5 5 10 15 15 15 15 15 TRANSP WIND DIR.....S S S SW W W W W W W W W TRANSP WIND SPD.....5 3 3 6 8 10 12 13 14 14 14 13 VRATE KT-FT/1000....1 1 1 5 13 25 42 61 79 80 79 77 LVORI...............5 5 5 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ADI.................2 2 2 2 19 31 45 56 64 64 63 60 HAINES INDEX........4 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 WAVE HEIGHT (FT)....0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 DOMINANT PERIOD (S).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .THURSDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....58 TO 62. MAX HUMIDITY........84 TO 89 PERCENT. WIND (20FT/2MIN)....SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH. WAVE HEIGHT.........DOES NOT APPLY FOR INLAND AREAS. DOMINANT PERIOD.....DOES NOT APPLY FOR INLAND AREAS. CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIXING HEIGHT.......4100-5100 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING...DECREASING TO 300-700 FT AGL LATE IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 8 TO 13 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH 4 TO 7 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).............43 43 43 55 55 55 65 65 65 70 70 70 WEATHER COV......... SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH WEATHER TYPE........ RW RW RW RW RW RW TSTM COV............ TEMP................82 78 74 70 68 66 64 64 63 62 61 61 RH..................32 37 46 53 57 63 67 70 72 75 78 81 CHC OF PCPN (%).....10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 20 20 20 20 MIX HGT (KFT).......5.1 3.1 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 20 FT WIND DIR......S S S S S S S S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD......6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 10 10 10 TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW SW SW W W NW W S S S S SW TRANSP WIND SPD.....13 12 12 10 9 9 8 7 7 6 6 5 VRATE KT-FT/1000....55 33 12 10 7 6 4 3 1 1 1 1 LVORI...............1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 6 6 ADI.................51 40 18 14 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 3 HAINES INDEX........4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 WAVE HEIGHT (FT)....0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 DOMINANT PERIOD (S).M M M M M M M M M M M M .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....78 TO 81. MIN HUMIDITY........37 TO 42 PERCENT. WIND (20FT/2MIN)....SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 8 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE IN OR NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. WAVE HEIGHT.........DOES NOT APPLY FOR INLAND AREAS. DOMINANT PERIOD.....DOES NOT APPLY FOR INLAND AREAS. CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT IN THE MORNING. 40 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1600 FT AGL IN THE MORNING...INCREASING TO 2700-3900 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5 TO 12 MPH. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).............73 73 73 74 74 74 74 74 74 75 75 75 WEATHER COV.........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC WEATHER TYPE........RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW TSTM COV............ CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC TEMP................60 60 61 63 68 72 75 77 78 79 80 80 RH..................84 84 81 75 63 55 50 47 45 44 42 44 CHC OF PCPN (%).....20 20 30 30 30 30 30 30 40 40 40 40 MIX HGT (KFT).......0.3 0.3 0.3 0.9 1.6 2.2 2.7 3.2 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.9 20 FT WIND DIR......S S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW 20 FT WIND SPD......5 5 3 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 20 FT WIND GUST..... 5 10 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW W NW W W W W W W W W W TRANSP WIND SPD.....5 3 3 5 7 8 9 10 12 12 12 12 VRATE KT-FT/1000....1 1 1 4 9 16 23 30 37 39 39 39 LVORI...............M M M M M M M M M M M M ADI.................M M M M M M M M M M M M HAINES INDEX........5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 WAVE HEIGHT (FT)....0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 DOMINANT PERIOD (S).M M M M M M M M M M M M FORECASTER...DEROSA REQUESTED BY...KRISTEN ALLEN TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120315.MALVE.02/AKQ