FNUS75 KBOU 141904 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR CAYLOR RX...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 103 PM MDT WED MAR 14 2012 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH FAIRLY HIGH MIXING HEIGHTS. DECENT DISPERSION IS EXPECTED DESPITE FAIRLY LIGHT TRANSPORT WINDS. HUMIDITY READINGS WILL BE LOW. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN TRANSPORT WINDS...WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR DECENT SMOKE DISPERSION EACH AFTERNOON. ON SUNDAY AN APPROACHING WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR. MIN TEMPERATURE.....27-33. MAX HUMIDITY........39-43%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 7-13 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 13-24 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN AROUND 12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......9000 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2300. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2100. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....56-60. MIN HUMIDITY........10-15%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 4-9 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST AFTER 1200. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS TO 15 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0800...INCREASING TO 10000-11000 FT AGL BY 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN FAIR. GOOD BY 1200... EXCELLENT AFTER 1300. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 7 MPH. .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 11 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER 1200. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER 1800. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 14 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR CAYLOR. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 03/14-12 23 0 0 52 10 SW12 18 5 1 SW22 8044 SW21 145476 V 03/14-13 23 0 0 55 9 SW14 21 5 1 SW22 10515 SW21 194143 E 03/14-14 23 0 0 57 8 SW15 23 5 1 SW22 12986 SW22 242809 E 03/14-15 12 0 0 58 7 SW15 24 5 1 SW22 15456 SW22 291475 E 03/14-16 12 0 0 58 7 SW15 24 5 1 SW23 13314 SW22 254441 E 03/14-17 12 0 0 56 7 W14 23 5 1 SW24 11171 SW23 217407 E 03/14-18 14 0 0 52 9 W13 21 5 1 SW25 9028 W23 180373 E 03/14-19 14 0 0 50 10 W10 16 5 1 SW25 6688 W21 129780 V 03/14-20 14 0 0 45 13 W 8 13 5 1 W26 4349 W18 79187 G 03/14-21 14 0 0 41 18 W 6 6 5 1 W25 2009 W16 28594 P 03/14-22 14 0 0 37 24 W 5 5 5 1 W25 1454 W15 20248 P 03/14-23 14 0 0 35 29 W 6 6 5 1 W25 899 W14 11901 P 03/15-00 21 0 0 33 34 W 6 6 5 1 W24 344 W12 3555 P 03/15-01 21 0 0 31 39 W 6 6 5 1 W23 299 W12 3068 P 03/15-02 21 0 0 30 41 W 7 7 5 1 W21 254 W12 2581 P 03/15-03 21 0 0 29 43 W 7 7 5 1 W18 209 W12 2094 P 03/15-04 21 0 0 29 43 W 7 7 5 1 W18 236 W10 2182 P 03/15-05 21 0 0 29 42 W 6 6 4 1 W18 264 W10 2270 P 03/15-06 19 0 0 31 38 W 5 5 4 1 W18 292 W 9 2358 P 03/15-07 19 0 0 33 36 W 5 5 4 1 W20 653 W 9 5173 P 03/15-08 19 0 0 35 33 W 3 3 4 1 W20 1014 W 9 7989 P 03/15-09 19 0 0 38 29 W 3 3 4 1 W21 1374 W 9 10805 P 03/15-10 19 0 0 44 23 W 3 3 4 1 W22 3977 W12 51813 F 03/15-11 19 0 0 50 18 SW 3 3 4 1 W22 6580 W14 92820 G 03/15-12 16 0 0 54 15 SW 5 5 4 1 SW23 9183 W17 133828 V 03/15-13 16 0 0 56 13 SW 6 6 4 1 SW25 10015 SW17 156576 E 03/15-14 16 0 0 57 12 SW 6 6 4 1 SW28 10848 SW18 179324 E 03/15-15 16 0 0 58 12 SW 7 7 4 1 SW29 11681 SW20 202072 E 03/15-16 16 0 0 57 12 SW 7 7 4 1 SW29 10656 SW20 180486 E 03/15-17 16 0 0 56 13 SW 7 7 4 1 SW28 9631 SW18 158899 E 03/15-18 11 0 0 54 15 SW 7 7 4 1 SW28 8606 SW18 137313 V 03/15-19 11 0 0 50 18 SW 6 6 4 1 SW26 5854 SW15 92331 G 03/15-20 11 0 0 44 24 SW 5 5 4 1 SW25 3103 SW12 47350 F 03/15-21 11 0 0 40 30 SW 3 3 4 1 SW25 351 SW 8 2369 P 03/15-22 11 0 0 38 35 W 3 3 4 1 SW26 312 SW 8 2073 P 03/15-23 11 0 0 36 40 W 5 5 5 1 SW28 272 SW 7 1777 P 03/16-00 8 0 0 35 44 W 5 5 5 1 SW30 233 SW 7 1481 P 03/16-01 8 0 0 35 46 W 5 5 5 1 SW31 233 SW 8 1567 P 03/16-02 8 0 0 34 48 W 5 5 5 1 SW32 234 SW 8 1653 P 03/16-03 8 0 0 34 48 W 5 5 5 1 SW32 234 SW 8 1739 P 03/16-04 8 0 0 33 50 W 5 5 5 1 SW31 228 SW 9 1715 P 03/16-05 8 0 0 33 51 W 5 5 4 1 SW29 221 W 9 1691 P 03/16-06 10 0 0 32 51 W 5 5 4 1 SW26 214 W 9 1667 P 03/16-07 10 0 0 35 46 W 5 5 4 1 SW25 491 W12 5790 P 03/16-08 10 0 0 37 42 W 6 6 4 1 SW23 769 W14 9914 P 03/16-09 10 0 0 40 36 W 6 6 4 1 SW23 1047 SW15 14037 P 03/16-10 10 0 0 45 27 SW 7 7 4 1 SW23 4318 SW17 75784 G 03/16-11 10 0 0 52 20 SW 7 7 5 1 SW23 7589 SW20 137531 V 03/16-12 18 0 0 56 15 SW 8 13 5 1 SW24 10859 SW21 199277 E 03/16-13 18 0 0 59 13 SW 8 14 5 1 SW26 12140 SW23 243681 E 03/16-14 18 0 0 60 12 SW 9 14 4 1 SW29 13422 SW24 288084 E 03/16-15 18 0 0 61 11 SW 9 15 4 1 SW31 14703 SW26 332487 E 03/16-16 18 0 0 60 11 SW 9 15 4 1 SW32 13510 SW26 310349 E 03/16-17 18 0 0 59 12 SW 9 15 3 1 SW33 12317 SW26 288210 E 03/16-18 16 0 0 56 13 SW 9 15 3 1 SW33 11124 SW28 266072 E 03/16-19 16 0 0 52 16 SW 9 14 3 1 SW33 8275 SW25 191724 E 03/16-20 16 0 0 47 23 SW 8 14 3 1 SW32 5426 SW22 117375 V 03/16-21 16 0 0 42 31 SW 8 13 3 1 SW30 2576 SW20 43027 F 03/16-22 16 0 0 39 36 SW 8 13 3 1 SW30 1863 SW17 30376 P 03/16-23 16 0 0 38 40 SW 8 13 2 1 SW29 1149 SW15 17725 P 03/17-00 17 0 0 37 43 SW 8 13 2 1 SW30 436 SW14 5074 P 03/17-01 17 0 0 36 45 SW 8 14 2 1 SW31 409 SW13 4707 P 03/17-02 17 0 0 36 47 SW 9 14 2 1 SW32 382 SW13 4340 P 03/17-03 17 0 0 35 48 SW 9 15 2 1 SW35 356 SW13 3974 P 03/17-04 17 0 0 35 48 W 9 15 2 1 SW36 354 SW13 3944 P 03/17-05 17 0 0 34 49 W 9 15 2 1 SW36 352 SW13 3915 P 03/17-06 21 0 0 34 48 W 9 15 2 1 SW36 350 SW13 3886 P 03/17-07 21 0 0 36 44 W 9 15 1 03/17-08 21 0 0 38 39 SW10 16 1 03/17-09 21 0 0 41 33 SW10 17 1 03/17-10 21 0 0 45 27 SW12 18 1 03/17-11 21 0 0 51 21 SW13 20 1 03/17-12 27 2 0 55 18 SW13 21 1 03/17-13 27 2 0 57 17 SW13 21 1 03/17-14 27 2 0 58 16 SW13 21 1 03/17-15 27 2 0 58 16 SW13 21 1 03/17-16 27 2 0 58 17 SW13 21 1 03/17-17 27 2 0 56 18 SW13 21 1 03/17-18 27 3 1 54 20 SW13 21 1 KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.1 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E- EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...LESZCYNSKI...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...DAVE HOWARD REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120315.CAYLO.01/BOU