FNUS75 KBOU 151649 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR CAYLOR RX...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 1049 AM MDT THU MAR 15 2012 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE AIRMASS REMAINING DRY. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THIS MORNING...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH TRANSPORT WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON...THE MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR DECENT SMOKE DISPERSION. THE AIRMASS WILL QUICKLY STABILIZE THIS EVENING...LIMITING THE DISPERSION. HUMIDITY READINGS WILL BE LOW THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SLOW RECOVERY OVERNIGHT. ON FRIDAY...THE WINDS ALOFT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR AT LEAST GOOD DISPERSION BY THE AFTERNOON. DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY...THEN MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW. COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 1200...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(35%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....55-59. MIN HUMIDITY........10-15%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN SOUTHWEST 6-12 MPH. SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 8-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2800-3800 FT AGL UNTIL 1200. 9600-10600 FT AGL AFTER 1400. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 1200...THEN GOOD. VERY GOOD AFTER 1500. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR. MIN TEMPERATURE.....32-37. MAX HUMIDITY........38-42%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 6-12 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 8-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......10200 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2400. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 1900...BECOMING POOR AFTER 2100. .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(35%) UNTIL 1100...THEN MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-65. MIN HUMIDITY........8-12%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 11-17 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12-20 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN AROUND 28 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 1000. 15600-16600 FT AGL AFTER 1500. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1100...THEN EXCELLENT. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1200. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 1800. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. .MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 1200...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW. COLDER. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 9 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR CAYLOR. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 03/15-10 35 0 0 35 24 W 3 3 2 1 W18 2295 W 8 23997 P 03/15-11 35 0 0 43 17 SW 3 3 2 1 W21 4384 W10 46931 F 03/15-12 28 0 0 48 14 SW 3 3 2 1 W23 6473 W13 69865 G 03/15-13 28 0 0 53 11 SW 5 5 2 1 W24 7947 W13 93379 G 03/15-14 28 0 0 57 10 SW 5 5 2 1 W24 9421 W14 116894 V 03/15-15 29 0 0 58 10 SW 6 6 2 1 W24 10894 SW15 140409 V 03/15-16 29 0 0 59 10 SW 7 7 2 1 W24 10684 SW15 135194 V 03/15-17 29 0 0 59 10 SW 8 13 3 1 W23 10474 W14 129980 V 03/15-18 29 0 0 58 12 W 8 13 3 1 W22 10264 W14 124765 V 03/15-19 29 0 0 54 14 W 7 7 3 1 W21 7861 W14 94730 G 03/15-20 29 0 0 49 19 W 6 6 3 1 W20 5458 W14 64696 G 03/15-21 29 0 0 45 23 W 5 5 3 1 W18 3054 W13 34661 P 03/15-22 29 0 0 43 27 W 3 3 3 1 W18 2204 W12 24407 P 03/15-23 29 0 0 40 32 W 3 3 3 1 W17 1354 W10 14154 P 03/16-00 13 0 0 39 35 W 3 3 3 1 W18 503 W 9 3900 P 03/16-01 13 0 0 38 38 W 5 5 3 1 SW21 433 W 9 3433 P 03/16-02 13 0 0 37 40 W 6 6 3 1 SW24 364 W 9 2967 P 03/16-03 13 0 0 35 41 W 7 7 3 1 SW26 294 W 9 2501 P 03/16-04 13 0 0 35 42 W 6 6 3 1 SW30 265 W 9 2185 P 03/16-05 13 0 0 34 42 W 5 5 3 1 W32 236 W 9 1869 P 03/16-06 10 0 0 32 42 W 3 3 3 1 W35 207 W 9 1553 P 03/16-07 10 0 0 32 42 W 3 3 3 1 W36 240 W 9 2051 P 03/16-08 10 0 0 32 39 W 5 5 3 1 W36 273 W10 2549 P 03/16-09 10 0 0 34 35 W 6 6 3 1 W35 306 SW12 3047 P 03/16-10 10 0 0 40 26 SW 8 8 3 1 W35 3180 SW17 80439 G 03/16-11 10 0 0 48 18 SW10 16 4 1 W33 6054 SW24 157831 E 03/16-12 15 0 0 53 14 SW13 20 4 1 W33 8928 SW30 235223 E 03/16-13 15 0 0 59 11 SW14 21 4 1 SW32 11667 SW30 294103 E 03/16-14 15 0 0 63 9 SW15 22 5 1 SW33 14405 SW29 352982 E 03/16-15 15 0 0 64 8 SW15 23 5 1 SW33 17144 SW28 411862 E 03/16-16 15 0 0 65 8 SW15 22 5 1 SW35 15993 SW28 383568 E 03/16-17 15 0 0 65 8 SW14 20 5 1 SW35 14842 SW28 355274 E 03/16-18 15 0 0 63 9 W12 17 5 1 SW36 13691 SW28 326980 E 03/16-19 15 0 0 58 12 W 9 9 5 1 SW35 9856 SW24 229146 E 03/16-20 15 0 0 50 17 W 7 7 5 1 SW33 6020 SW21 131311 V 03/16-21 15 0 0 44 22 W 5 5 5 1 SW32 2185 SW17 33477 P 03/16-22 15 0 0 41 26 W 5 5 5 1 SW31 1533 SW16 23156 P 03/16-23 15 0 0 38 30 W 6 6 4 1 SW29 881 SW14 12836 P 03/17-00 15 0 0 36 33 W 7 7 4 1 SW28 229 SW13 2515 P 03/17-01 15 0 0 34 37 W 7 7 4 1 SW24 205 SW13 2180 P 03/17-02 15 0 0 33 41 W 6 6 4 1 SW20 181 SW12 1844 P 03/17-03 15 0 0 31 44 W 6 6 4 1 SW18 157 SW12 1509 P 03/17-04 15 0 0 30 48 W 5 5 4 1 SW20 144 SW10 1312 P 03/17-05 15 0 0 28 51 W 5 5 4 1 SW22 132 W 9 1115 P 03/17-06 15 0 0 27 55 W 5 5 4 1 SW25 120 W 9 918 P 03/17-07 15 0 0 26 57 W 6 6 4 1 SW26 139 SW10 1245 P 03/17-08 15 0 0 26 55 W 7 7 4 1 SW29 159 SW12 1572 P 03/17-09 15 0 0 28 50 SW 9 14 4 1 SW30 178 SW13 1899 P 03/17-10 15 0 0 36 36 SW10 16 4 1 SW33 2565 SW18 66997 G 03/17-11 15 0 0 46 23 SW13 18 4 1 SW37 4951 SW24 132095 V 03/17-12 20 0 0 51 18 SW14 21 4 1 SW40 7338 SW31 197194 E 03/17-13 20 0 0 57 14 SW15 23 4 1 SW44 9646 SW33 292600 E 03/17-14 20 0 0 62 11 SW17 25 3 1 SW47 11954 SW37 388007 E 03/17-15 20 0 0 64 11 SW18 28 3 1 SW49 14262 SW39 483414 E 03/17-16 20 0 0 65 10 SW20 29 3 1 SW49 13810 SW39 470453 E 03/17-17 20 0 0 65 10 SW20 30 3 1 SW48 13358 SW39 457493 E 03/17-18 24 0 0 63 11 SW20 30 3 1 SW47 12907 SW39 444532 E 03/17-19 24 0 0 59 13 SW18 28 3 1 SW48 9937 SW37 331488 E 03/17-20 24 0 0 51 18 SW17 25 3 1 SW51 6967 SW33 218444 E 03/17-21 24 0 0 45 23 SW15 23 3 1 SW52 3997 S30 105399 V 03/17-22 24 0 0 42 27 SW13 20 3 1 SW54 2791 S26 72203 G 03/17-23 24 0 0 39 31 SW10 16 2 1 SW55 1586 S22 39006 P 03/18-00 26 0 0 37 34 SW 9 14 2 1 SW58 380 S17 5810 P 03/18-01 26 0 0 36 37 SW 8 8 2 1 SW62 361 S17 5349 P 03/18-02 26 0 0 34 41 SW 9 9 2 1 S67 341 SW16 4887 P 03/18-03 26 0 0 33 44 SW 9 14 2 1 S70 322 SW16 4426 P 03/18-04 26 0 0 31 48 SW 9 15 2 1 S73 305 SW16 4269 P 03/18-05 26 0 0 30 52 SW10 16 3 1 S73 288 SW16 4112 P 03/18-06 31 5 1 28 57 SW12 17 3 1 S71 272 SW17 3955 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.1 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E- EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...LESZCYNSKI...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...DAVE HOWARD REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120315.CAYLO.02/BOU