FNUS73 KPAH 151306 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR ONE HORSE GAP LAKE...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 806 AM CDT THU MAR 15 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 CDT ON MARCH 15. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WHICH WILL ALLOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO DROP INTO THE 40S AND 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH A TREND TOWARD LESSER COVERAGE EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (65-75 PERCENT) THIS AM...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY. TEMPERATURE.........68 AT IGNITION...MAX 76. RH..................84 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 50 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. CWR.................31 PERCENT INCREASING TO 55 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4. MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL AT IGNITION...INCREASING TO 2400-3100 FT AGL IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 16 TO 25 MPH INCREASING TO 23 TO 31 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY CHC WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW TEMP............68 70 72 73 74 75 75 75 74 RH..............84 76 68 62 55 52 52 54 57 20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW S 20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 7 8 8 8 7 6 6 20 FT WIND GUST.20 20 25 25 25 25 25 20 15 MIX HGT (KFT)...2.0 2.5 2.8 3.1 3.1 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.4 TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW TRANSP WIND SPD.25 29 30 31 31 30 28 25 23 CWR.............30 30 30 60 60 60 60 60 60 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 60. RH..................MAX 93 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH BECOMING LIGHT. CWR.................29 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2100 FT AGL DECREASING TO 0-100 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 14 TO 22 MPH. TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM SKY (%).........MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............72 68 66 64 63 62 RH..............66 78 84 87 87 90 20 FT WIND......S 5 S 4 S 4 SW 5 SW 4 SW 4 20 FT WIND GUST.10 5 5 5 5 MIX HGT (FT)....2100 1500 800 300 BLW100 BLW100 TRANSPORT WIND..SW 22 SW 22 SW 22 SW 22 SW 20 SW 15 CWR.............30 30 30 20 20 20 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 80. RH..................MIN 47 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 8 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. CWR.................26 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2600-3800 FT AGL IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 18 MPH. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 10 AM 1 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............61 68 76 79 RH..............93 78 58 49 20 FT WIND......SW 3G5 SW 4G15 SW 6G15 SW 6G15 MIX HGT (FT)....300 1900 3500 3700 TRANSPORT WIND..SW 13 SW 12 SW 13 SW 16 CWR.............30 30 30 30 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 $$ FORECASTER...MEFFERT REQUESTED BY...GREG BURKHART TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120315.ONEHO.01/PAH