FNUS73 KPAH 151205 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR SIMPSON BARRENS...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 705 AM CDT THU MAR 15 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0930 CDT ON MARCH 15. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WHICH WILL ALLOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO DROP INTO THE 40S AND 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH A TREND TOWARD LESSER COVERAGE EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........68 AT IGNITION...MAX 76. RH..................87 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 52 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 8 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 6 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH. CWR.................34 PERCENT INCREASING TO 56 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4. MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 300-2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2300-3100 FT AGL IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 16 TO 23 MPH INCREASING TO 22 TO 31 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY CHC WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW TEMP............66 68 70 72 73 74 75 75 75 74 RH..............87 84 78 71 64 59 54 54 54 59 20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW S 20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 20 FT WIND GUST.15 20 20 25 25 25 25 25 20 15 MIX HGT (KFT)...1.4 2.0 2.4 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.6 2.3 TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW TRANSP WIND SPD.23 26 29 30 31 30 29 26 24 22 CWR.............30 30 30 30 60 60 60 60 60 60 HAINES INDEX....4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 59. RH..................MAX 96 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH. CWR.................29 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......100-2000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 0 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 14 TO 23 MPH. TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM SKY (%).........MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............72 68 65 64 62 61 RH..............66 78 87 87 90 93 20 FT WIND......S 5 S 4 S 4 S 5 SW 4 SW 4 20 FT WIND GUST.10 5 5 5 5 MIX HGT (FT)....2000 1400 800 300 BLW100 BLW100 TRANSPORT WIND..SW 21 SW 21 SW 22 SW 23 SW 20 SW 16 CWR.............30 30 30 20 20 20 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 79. RH..................MIN 50 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 8 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. CWR.................26 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2600-3500 FT AGL IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 17 MPH. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 10 AM 1 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............60 67 75 78 RH..............96 81 62 52 20 FT WIND......SW 4G5 SW 3G15 SW 6G15 SW 6G15 MIX HGT (FT)....300 1900 3500 3300 TRANSPORT WIND..SW 13 SW 13 SW 14 SW 15 CWR.............30 30 30 30 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 $$ FORECASTER...WFO PADUCAH REQUESTED BY...FRANK PAUKERT TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120315.SIMPS.01/PAH