FNUS73 KAPX 171331 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR MEMORABLE MIDDLE RX...USDA FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 931 AM EDT SAT MAR 17 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1230 EDT ON MARCH 17. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A WARM FRONT WILL QUICKLY LIFT THROUGH THE BURN SITE THIS MORNING...ALLOWING ANY REMAINING FOG TO BURN OFF. MORE MOIST AIR WILL ALSO OVERTAKE THE AREA. HUMIDITIES WILL NOT REACH CRITICAL LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH VERY WARM AIR WILL SEND TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S...AND WINDS WILL GUST OUT OF THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST UP TO 25 MPH. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE TODAY...BUT A LACK OF A LAKE BREEZE OR FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WILL NOT ALLOW FOR A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. CHANCES FOR SEEING ACTIVITY ARE JUST TOO SMALL. A MUCH MILDER NIGHT WILL BE FELT TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SIMILAR DAY ON TAP FOR TOMORROW. THERE IS A BETTER SHOT AT SEEING A LAKE BREEZE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY ACT AS A FOCUS FOR A THUNDERSTORM...BUT THE CHANCE IS STILL ON THE SMALL SIDE. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT). WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IN THE MORNING...THEN PATCHY FOG LATE IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURE.........67 AT IGNITION...MAX 75. RH..................75 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 48 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 7 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 7 TO 10 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 10 MPH INCREASING TO 16 TO 23 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 100-800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3400 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (200) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT (900). TIME (EDT) 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........38 29 25 25 25 25 WEATHER COV.....PTY WEATHER TYPE....FOG TEMP............58 63 68 72 74 75 RH..............75 65 57 51 50 48 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..6 7 7 8 8 8 20 FT WIND GUST.10 15 15 15 15 15 HAINES INDEX....5 4 4 4 5 5 SMOKE DISP......100 200 400 700 900 900 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (25-35 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MIN 50. RH..................MAX 100 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT...THEN BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 7 TO 16 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 3 TO 7 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MIXING HEIGHT.......0-200 FT AGL. HAINES INDEX........MIN 3. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN POOR(0). TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........23 18 15 18 23 25 24 21 20 26 37 42 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............75 73 69 64 62 61 59 58 56 54 53 53 RH..............50 53 63 73 78 78 80 83 86 90 93 89 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..7 7 6 5 4 4 4 5 5 4 3 2 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 5 5 5 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 4 4 SMOKE DISP......500 200 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 73. RH..................MIN 57 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 1 TO 10 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......100-1300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3800 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........MAX 4. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX GOOD(400). TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........44 49 50 51 51 49 WEATHER COV..... CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............52 50 53 62 68 72 RH..............93 100 93 72 63 57 20 FT WIND......S 2 SW 2 S 3 S 5 SE 6 SE 6 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 10 15 15 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 3 4 SMOKE DISP......0 0 0 100 300 400 .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .MONDAY... PARTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. LIGHT WINDS. .TUESDAY... PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS AROUND 70. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 6 MPH. .WEDNESDAY... PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS AROUND 70. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 7 MPH. $$ FORECASTER...SCOTT DICKSON REQUESTED BY...PERSEPHONE WHELAN TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120317.MEMOR.01/APX