FNUS73 KAPX 171630 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR MEMORABLE MIDDLE RX...USDA FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1230 PM EDT SAT MAR 17 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1230 EDT ON MARCH 17. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...MORNING FOG AND CLOUDS HAVE MIXED OUT...AND WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. EARLIER FORECAST FOR MAX TEMPERATURES A LITTLE LOW BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...BUT HUMIDITY STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE THE SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS AND THE ASSOCIATED GUSTS. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SOME DEGREE IN CUMULUS...BUT SKIES WILL GENERALLY STAY ON THE MOSTLY SUNNY SIDE OF THINGS. STILL LOOKING AT A MILDER NIGHT WITH GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERY. TOMORROW A SLIGHTLY BETTER SHOT AT SEEING A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON BUT THE CHANCE IT WOULD BE AT THE EXACT BURN SITE IS RATHER MINIMAL. .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (5 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........73 AT IGNITION...MAX 78. RH..................55 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 43 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 7 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE SOUTH WINDS 8 TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 22 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 16 TO 22 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1600 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 1600-3400 FT AGL. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (200) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT (900). TIME (EDT) 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........10 15 20 30 40 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............73 72 72 74 75 RH..............55 53 51 50 48 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..7 7 8 8 8 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 25 25 20 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 5 5 SMOKE DISP......200 400 700 900 900 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MIN 50. RH..................MAX 100 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT...THEN BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 7 TO 16 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 3 TO 7 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MIXING HEIGHT.......0-200 FT AGL. HAINES INDEX........MIN 3. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN POOR(0). TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........40 25 11 18 23 25 24 21 20 26 37 42 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............75 73 69 64 62 61 59 58 56 54 53 53 RH..............50 53 63 73 78 78 80 83 86 90 93 89 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..8 7 7 5 4 4 4 5 5 4 3 2 20 FT WIND GUST.20 15 15 10 10 10 10 10 10 5 5 5 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 4 4 SMOKE DISP......500 200 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 73. RH..................MIN 57 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 1 TO 10 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......100-1300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3800 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........MAX 4. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX GOOD(400). TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........44 49 50 51 51 49 WEATHER COV..... CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............52 50 53 62 68 72 RH..............93 100 93 72 63 57 20 FT WIND......S 2 SW 2 S 3 S 5 SE 6 SE 6 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 10 15 15 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 3 4 SMOKE DISP......0 0 0 100 300 400 .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .MONDAY... PARTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. LIGHT WINDS. .TUESDAY... PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS AROUND 70. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 6 MPH. .WEDNESDAY... PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS AROUND 70. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 7 MPH. $$ FORECASTER...SCOTT DICKSON REQUESTED BY...PERSEPHONE WHELAN TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120317.MEMOR.01/APX