FNUS73 KAPX 171907 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR RATTLESNAKE RX...USDA FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 305 PM EDT SAT MAR 17 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 EDT ON MARCH 17. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... UPDATE...TEMPERATURES NEAR THE BURN SITE HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH HUMIDITIES DROPPING TO THE LOWER 30 PERCENT RANGE. ALSO...WINDS ARE GUSTING HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...UP TO 30 MPH. A WARM FRONT WILL QUICKLY LIFT THROUGH THE BURN SITE THIS MORNING...ALLOWING MORE MOIST AIR TO OVERTAKE THE AREA. HUMIDITIES WILL NOT REACH CRITICAL LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH VERY WARM AIR WILL SEND TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S...AND WINDS WILL GUST OUT OF THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST UP TO 25 MPH. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE TODAY...BUT A LACK OF A LAKE BREEZE OR FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WILL NOT ALLOW FOR A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. CHANCES FOR SEEING ACTIVITY ARE JUST TOO SMALL. A MUCH MILDER NIGHT WILL BE FELT TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SIMILAR DAY ON TAP FOR TOMORROW. WARM AND VERY MINIMAL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURE.........69 AT IGNITION...MAX 79. RH..................65 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 45 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 8 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 11 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 17 MPH INCREASING TO 20 TO 22 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 100-2000 FT AGL. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (200) AT IGNITION. MAX...GOOD (500). TIME (EDT) 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........25 36 41 41 40 40 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............65 69 73 76 78 79 RH..............65 59 53 48 47 45 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..7 8 10 10 10 9 20 FT WIND GUST.15 20 20 20 20 15 HAINES INDEX....4 5 5 5 5 5 SMOKE DISP......200 300 400 500 500 400 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MIN 55. RH..................MAX 96 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 17 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......200-400 FT AGL. HAINES INDEX........MIN 3. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN POOR(0). TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........37 30 27 27 26 25 29 37 41 42 44 45 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............79 77 73 69 67 65 64 62 61 59 58 57 RH..............47 50 57 63 68 70 73 75 75 80 83 86 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD..7 6 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 20 FT WIND GUST.15 10 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 SMOKE DISP......300 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MAX 73. RH..................MIN 55 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 9 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 8 TO 16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......100-1500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2600 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........MAX 4. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX GOOD(500). TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........50 59 60 59 56 51 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............57 55 58 64 69 72 RH..............86 96 86 73 63 57 20 FT WIND......SE 1 SE 3 SE 4 S 6 SW 6 SW 8 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 10 10 15 20 HAINES INDEX....3 4 4 4 4 4 SMOKE DISP......0 0 0 200 400 500 .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .MONDAY... PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 6 MPH. .TUESDAY... PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 9 MPH. .WEDNESDAY... PARTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. $$ FORECASTER...SCOTT DICKSON REQUESTED BY...JOE RASPOTNIK TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120317.RATTL.01/APX