FNUS72 KILM 171059
FWSILM

SPOT FORECAST FOR TNC BURN...NC FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
659 AM EDT SAT MAR 17 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 EDT ON MARCH 17.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT HOLDS OVER THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT
SOUTH OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. WARM AND
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF NEXT WEEK..AS AN
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE REGION.

WIND PROFILE ANALYSIS/FIRE CONTROL OVER FLAT TERRAIN IS FAVORABLE
AFTER INVERSION BURN OFF WHICH SHOULD OCCUR BY 11 AM.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT) THIS MORNING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (60 PERCENT) THIS AFTERNOON.
                    A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    UNTIL MID AFTERNOON...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 78.
MIN HUMIDITY........55 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH TO
                    SOUTHWEST 10 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND
                    AFTERNOON.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 MPH.
MAX ADI.............31.
MAX LVORI...........6.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (42000 MPH-FT).

TIME (EDT)          9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).............39     54     54     56     63
WEATHER COV.........S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV............S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE
TEMP................64     72     75     77     74
RH..................78     63     58     55     60
20 FT WIND..........SW 3   W 4    W 5    SW 7   SW 7
20 FT WIND GUST.....5      5      10     15     15
LVORI...............4      2      2      2      2
ADI.................7      17     27     25     17
VRATE MPH-FT/1000...4      15     34     36     21

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL EARLY
                    MORNING...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LATE.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 56.
MAX HUMIDITY........97 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH IN THE
                    EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. GUSTY
                    AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO LESS THAN 1000 FT AGL BY 8 PM.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 6 TO 10 MPH BECOMING LIGHT.
MAX ADI.............16.
MAX LVORI...........8.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (1035-17710 MPH-FT).

TIME (EDT)          6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).............66     71     67     61     56     60
WEATHER COV.........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC
WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV............CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC
TEMP................72     68     65     63     61     60
RH..................65     75     81     86     91     93
20 FT WIND..........SW 7   S 5    S 4    SE 3   SE 2   E 2
20 FT WIND GUST.....15     10     5      5
LVORI...............3      3      4      5      6      7
ADI.................16     11     11     6      4      2
VRATE MPH-FT/1000...18     5      5      4      4      1

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 77.
MIN HUMIDITY........59 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING EAST AROUND
                    5 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH.
MAX ADI.............10.
MAX LVORI...........8.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (12500 MPH-FT).

TIME (EDT)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............65     68     68     67     66     63
WEATHER COV.........S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV............S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE
TEMP................59     58     65     72     75     75
RH..................95     95     79     64     59     60
20 FT WIND..........NE 2   N 2    NE 3   E 4    E 4    E 4
20 FT WIND GUST.....5      5      5      5      5      5
LVORI...............7      7      4      3      2      3
ADI.................1      2      2      9      10     7
VRATE MPH-FT/1000...1      1      3      9      11     9

$$
FORECASTER...RAN
REQUESTED BY...BRIAN COUNCIL
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20120317.TNCBU.02/ILM