FNUS73 KAPX 181543
FWSAPX

SPOT FORECAST FOR THOMPSON FARM...USDA FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1143 AM EDT SUN MAR 18 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1600 EDT ON MARCH 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS...BUT
AVERAGE ON WIND DIRECTION. THE MAIN POINT OF CONTENTION IS THE
POSITION OF THE LAKE BREEZE. WHILE WE'VE INDICATED WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEAST...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WIND COULD REMAIN SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE BURN. MIXING HEIGHTS AND VENTING WILL BE GOOD...BUT THE HAINES
INDEX WILL BE ELEVATED.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE.........79 AT IGNITION...MAX 79.
RH..................38 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 37 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHEAST AT 7 MPH AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING
                    SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN THE
                    MORNING...THEN BECOMING LIGHT LATE IN THE
                    MORNING BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 7 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 2 TO 10 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4000 FT AGL AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE 4000 FT AGL LATE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (500) AT IGNITION. MAX...GOOD (500).

TIME (EDT)      4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........45  45
WEATHER COV.....    SCH
WEATHER TYPE....    RW
TEMP............79  74
RH..............38  48
20 FT WIND DIR..SE  SE
20 FT WIND SPD..7   6
20 FT WIND GUST.15  15
HAINES INDEX....5   5
SMOKE DISP......500 400

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (25-35 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EARLY IN THE EVENING.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 49.
RH..................MAX 100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS AROUND 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........41  34  29  28  25  23  23  23  23  21  18  16
WEATHER COV.....SCH
WEATHER TYPE....RW
TEMP............73  71  69  67  66  64  62  59  58  56  54  52
RH..............51  57  61  68  70  75  78  83  83  86  93  100
20 FT WIND DIR..S   SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD..6   6   4   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   1   1
20 FT WIND GUST.15  10  10  5   5   5   5   5   5   5

$$
FORECASTER...JEFF HALBLAUB
REQUESTED BY...BSTEARNS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20120318.THOMP.01/APX