FNUS72 KILM 180117 FWSILM SPOT FORECAST FOR TNC BURN...NC FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 917 PM EDT SAT MAR 17 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON MARCH 18. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE AT THE FIRE SITE A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE SUNDAY...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE EAST BUT WITH LITTLE INCREASE IN WIND SPEED. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL TURN SOUTHEASTERLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING SPOTTY RAINFALL TO THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...WITH LESSER CHANCES LATER IN THE WEEK. WARM AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE NEW WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION CONTINUES. .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURE.........64 AT IGNITION...MAX 77. RH..................83 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 62 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS EAST AT 4 MPH AT IGNITION. WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 6 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......1400 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE INCREASING TO 3500 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH 9 MPH. MAX ADI.............21. MAX LVORI...........10. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (31500 FT-MPH). TIME (EDT) 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............71 65 66 67 WEATHER COV.........S CHC S CHC CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TSTM COV............S CHC S CHC CHANCE CHANCE TEMP................64 69 73 74 RH..................83 70 63 63 20 FT WIND..........E 3 SE 4 SE 5 S 4 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 5 10 5 LVORI...............4 3 2 2 ADI.................11 16 20 21 VRATE MPH-FT/1000...10 17 24 28 .SUNDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. AREAS OF SMOKE AND FOG OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 56. RH..................MAX 99 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO 0-400 FT AGL OVERNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 6 MPH. MAX ADI.............14. MAX LVORI...........9. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (2400 MPH-FT). TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............69 74 63 58 54 54 WEATHER COV.........CHANCE S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE TSTM COV............CHANCE S CHC S CHC S CHC TEMP................71 66 61 59 58 57 RH..................69 83 95 98 98 98 20 FT WIND..........S 3 S 2 SW 2 W 2 NW 2 N 2 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 5 5 5 5 5 LVORI...............3 5 6 9 9 9 ADI.................14 3 3 3 3 3 VRATE MPH-FT/1000...16 3 0 0 3 1 .MONDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MAX 77. RH..................MIN 56 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 4500 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 5 MPH. MAX ADI.............18. MAX LVORI...........9. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (18000 MPH-FT). TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............55 55 55 56 56 56 WEATHER COV......... S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE........NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TSTM COV............ S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC TEMP................57 57 65 72 75 75 RH..................98 97 73 59 56 57 20 FT WIND..........N 2 NE 2 NE 2 NE 3 E 3 E 3 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 5 5 5 5 5 LVORI...............9 8 3 2 2 2 ADI.................2 4 11 12 18 18 VRATE MPH-FT/1000...1 2 9 16 20 20 $$ FORECASTER...ARMSTRONG REQUESTED BY...BRIAN COUNCIL TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120318.TNCBU.01/ILM