FNUS72 KILM 181057 FWSILM SPOT FORECAST FOR TNC BURN...NC FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 657 AM EDT SUN MAR 18 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON MARCH 18. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT HOLDS OVER THE AREA. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MEANDERING ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WARM AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION AMPLIFIES. WIND PROFILE ANALYSIS/FIRE CONTROL OVER FLAT TERRAIN IS FAVORABLE AFTER INVERSION BURN OFF AROUND 11 AM. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE AND FOG THIS MORNING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 74. MIN HUMIDITY........63 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......2700 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 MPH. MAX ADI.............22. MAX LVORI...........10. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (27000 MPH-FT). TIME (EDT) 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............70 67 66 68 WEATHER COV.........AREAS S CHC CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE........FOG RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TSTM COV............S CHC S CHC CHANCE CHANCE TEMP................65 71 73 73 RH..................78 67 64 64 20 FT WIND..........E 2 SE 3 SE 5 SE 7 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 5 10 15 LVORI...............4 3 2 2 ADI.................3 17 22 19 VRATE MPH-FT/1000...6 18 28 24 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL EARLY MORNING. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 55. MAX HUMIDITY........99 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 10 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL EARLY MORNING. MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL...DECREASING TO LESS THAN 1000 FT AGL AFTER SUNSET. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 6 TO 7 MPH. MAX ADI.............13. MAX LVORI...........9. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0-12000 MPH-FT). TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............71 74 69 63 58 57 WEATHER COV.........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE TSTM COV............CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE TEMP................69 65 63 61 59 58 RH..................74 84 89 93 97 98 20 FT WIND..........S 8 SE 6 SE 2 E 1 NE 1 NE 2 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 10 5 LVORI...............3 4 5 6 8 9 ADI.................13 6 4 3 3 3 VRATE MPH-FT/1000...14 3 0 0 0 0 .MONDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 77. MIN HUMIDITY........54 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING EAST 5 TO 6 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......5100 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 7 MPH. MAX ADI.............21. MAX LVORI...........9. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (35700 MPH-FT). TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............55 54 55 57 58 58 WEATHER COV......... S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR TSTM COV............ S CHC S CHC TEMP................57 57 64 72 75 76 RH..................99 95 76 60 55 54 20 FT WIND..........N 2 N 2 N 3 NE 5 E 5 E 5 20 FT WIND GUST..... 5 5 10 10 10 LVORI...............9 8 4 2 2 2 ADI.................2 2 4 17 21 21 VRATE MPH-FT/1000...0 2 17 26 36 36 $$ FORECASTER...RAN REQUESTED BY...BRIAN COUNCIL TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120318.TNCBU.02/ILM