FNUS73 KPAH 181540 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR LONGBAY...NATIONAL PARK SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 1040 AM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 CDT ON MARCH 18. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... THERE WILL BRIEF INTERVALS OF FULL SUNSHINE THROUGH IGNITION TIME... GENERALLY LESS THAN 15-30 MINUTES AT A TIME. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO RETARD FORECAST TEMPERATURES BY 1-2 DEGREES FROM EXPECTED HOURLY AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH...WITH LIMITED DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...UNLESS SUFFICIENT MIXING CAN OCCUR WITH FULL SUNSHINE. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY REMAIN ELEVATED CLOSER TO 50 PERCENT... ALSO DEPENDENT ON THE SUNSHINE AVAILABLE. IF THE SUNSHINE DURATION DOES NOT INCREASE AFTER IGNITION...EVAPORATION IN THE BURN AREA WILL BE SOMEWHAT SLOWED...REDUCING AN EFFECTIVE BURNING STRATEGY THIS AFTERNOON. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY(55-70 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........72 AT IGNITION...MAX 77. RH..................64 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 46 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 11 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 11 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4. MIXING HEIGHT.......2700 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 1400-2700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3400 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASING TO 5800 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON INCREASING TO 8300-9600 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 6100 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 0 TO 7 MPH INCREASING TO 25 TO 29 MPH. TIME (CDT) 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........MC MC MC MC MC MC MC WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............72 74 76 77 77 77 76 RH..............64 59 54 52 50 50 54 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..9 9 9 9 9 8 6 20 FT WIND GUST.20 20 20 20 20 20 25 MIX HGT (KFT)...2.7 3.4 5.8 8.3 9.6 8.6 6.1 TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.26 25 26 26 28 26 25 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 4 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MIN 61. RH..................MAX 92 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2900 FT AGL DECREASING TO 0-300 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 24 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 14 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. TIME (CDT) 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM SKY (%).........MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............74 71 69 68 67 66 65 64 63 63 62 62 RH..............59 68 73 76 78 81 84 87 90 87 90 87 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..6 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 15 10 10 10 10 5 5 5 MIX HGT (KFT)...2.9 1.9 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.24 21 17 15 15 15 15 15 14 14 14 14 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 .MONDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MAX 79. RH..................MIN 45 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 11 MPH. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2400-4100 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 4900-5900 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 3300 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 14 TO 21 MPH INCREASING TO 20 TO 26 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. TIME (CDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW TEMP............61 63 66 68 71 73 75 77 78 78 78 76 RH..............90 87 78 76 66 62 58 52 48 50 48 52 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..4 4 5 5 6 7 8 9 9 9 8 7 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 10 10 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 MIX HGT (KFT)...0.3 0.5 1.0 1.6 2.4 3.2 4.1 5.1 5.8 5.9 4.9 3.3 TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.14 15 16 18 21 24 25 26 25 23 22 20 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 $$ FORECASTER...SMITH REQUESTED BY...AARON MIER TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120318.LONGB.01/PAH