FNUS73 KAPX 191632 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR RATTLESNAKE...USDA FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1232 PM EDT MON MAR 19 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1700 EDT ON MARCH 19. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE DAKOTAS IS RESULTING IN A CONTINUOUS FEED OF RECORD BREAKING WARMTH VIA SOUTHERLY WINDS. WIND SPEEDS IN THE LOW LEVEL LOOK JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT A LAKE BREEZE FROM TRANSLATING THROUGH THE BURN SITE. HOWEVER...CAN FORESEE A POSSIBLE SLIGHT SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON IF THE LAKES AT LEAST TRY AND GET INVOLVED. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASED A LITTLE BIT FROM YESTERDAY...AND WITH PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...HUMIDITIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH CRITICAL LEVELS. SOME OF THE LATEST DATA ROLLING IN SUGGESTS A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW POTENTIAL STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT WE WILL HAVE A DISTURBANCE ALOFT ARRIVE WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE (SEEN BY THE CURRENT INCREASING CLOUDINESS). THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A SHOWER CAN DEVELOP THEN AS WELL. HUMIDITIES WILL AGAIN RECOVER QUITE WELL WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING. TOMORROW DOESN'T LOOK ALL THAT GREAT FOR RAIN CHANCES...BUT THE WARMTH DOES CONTINUE WITH NON-CRITICAL HUMIDITIES. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........83 AT IGNITION...MAX 84. RH..................44 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 43 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 8 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE SOUTH 5 TO 8 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 18 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 20 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......100-1800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3000 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 3000 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (600) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT (600). TIME (EDT) 5PM SKY (%).........60 WEATHER COV.....SCH WEATHER TYPE....RW TEMP............83 RH..............44 20 FT WIND DIR..S 20 FT WIND SPD..7 20 FT WIND GUST.20 HAINES INDEX....3 SMOKE DISP......600 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 57. RH..................MAX 84 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT...THEN BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 18 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......200-1100 FT AGL. HAINES INDEX........MIN 3. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN POOR(0). TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........62 65 66 58 61 63 59 50 46 50 58 62 WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW TEMP............82 80 72 70 68 67 66 66 65 64 63 62 RH..............46 49 64 61 63 65 68 68 70 73 75 78 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD..7 6 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 HAINES INDEX....3 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 SMOKE DISP......400 300 200 100 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 86. RH..................MIN 35 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 11 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 18 MPH INCREASING TO 20 TO 22 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......100-500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2300-2500 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........MAX 4. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX EXCELLENT(700). TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........61 58 65 60 40 27 WEATHER COV.....S CHC S CHC PATCHY WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR FOG NONE NONE NONE TEMP............60 60 69 78 82 83 RH..............84 78 63 47 35 36 20 FT WIND......SE 4 SE 4 S 6 S 7 S 9 SW 10 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 15 15 20 20 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 SMOKE DISP......0 0 100 400 700 700 .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .WEDNESDAY... PARTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 7 MPH. .THURSDAY... COOLER. MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. LIGHT WINDS. .FRIDAY... MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS AROUND 60. LIGHT WINDS. $$ FORECASTER...SCOTT DICKSON REQUESTED BY...JOE RASPOTNIK TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120319.RATTL.01/APX