FNUS73 KAPX 191449 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR SOUTH BRANCH 4...USDA FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1049 AM EDT MON MAR 19 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1500 EDT ON MARCH 19. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE DAKOTAS IS RESULTING IN A CONTINUOUS FEED OF RECORD BREAKING WARMTH VIA SOUTHERLY WINDS. WIND SPEEDS IN THE LOW LEVEL LOOK JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT A LAKE BREEZE FROM TRANSLATING THROUGH THE BURN SITE. HOWEVER...CAN FORESEE SLIGHT SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LAKES WILL AT LEAST TRY AND GET INVOLVED. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASED A LITTLE BIT FROM YESTERDAY...AND WITH PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...HUMIDITIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH CRITICAL LEVELS. THE ATMOSPHERE ALSO DOES NOT APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR ANY RAIN SHOWER OR STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY WITH THE ABSENCE OF LAKE BREEZES. HOWEVER...TONIGHT WE WILL HAVE A DISTURBANCE ALOFT ARRIVE WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE (SEEN BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS). THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A SHOWER CAN DEVELOP. HUMIDITIES WILL AGAIN RECOVER QUITE WELL WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING. TOMORROW DOESN'T LOOK MUCH BETTER FOR RAIN CHANCES EITHER...BUT THE WARMTH DOES CONTINUE WITH NON-CRITICAL HUMIDITIES. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY...THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURE.........79 AT IGNITION...MAX 81. RH..................45 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 41 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 6 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 8 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH INCREASING TO 14 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL TRY AND TURN MORE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......100-1400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4200 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 4500 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (700) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT (900). TIME (EDT) 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........28 36 45 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............79 80 80 RH..............47 45 51 20 FT WIND DIR..S S SE 20 FT WIND SPD..6 7 7 20 FT WIND GUST.20 20 20 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 SMOKE DISP......700 900 800 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. AREAS OF FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 51. RH..................MAX 100 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 7 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........48 55 58 59 62 63 61 56 53 54 57 58 WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH SCH ARS ARS WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW FOG FOG TEMP............80 79 69 66 63 61 59 58 57 56 56 56 RH..............51 50 73 68 75 81 87 86 90 93 93 93 20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..7 6 6 4 3 3 3 4 4 3 3 2 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 10 5 5 5 10 10 5 5 5 .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .WEDNESDAY... MOSTLY CLEAR. PATCHY FOG. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 6 MPH. .THURSDAY... COOLER. PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. LIGHT WINDS. .FRIDAY... PARTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS AROUND 60. LIGHT WINDS. $$ FORECASTER...SCOTT DICKSON REQUESTED BY...HURON SHORES TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120319.SOUTH.01/APX