FNUS73 KILX 191202 FWSILX SPOT FORECAST FOR CCFPD PATTON...CHAMPAIGN COUNTY FOREST PRESERVE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN, IL 702 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 CDT ON MARCH 19. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 MPH EARLY...INCREASING TO AROUND 15 MPH BY IGNITION TIME. GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH EXPECTED BY AROUND 1 PM. THE GUSTINESS SHOULD FALL OFF AROUND SUNSET. EXPECT ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST OF THE BURN AREA THIS MORNING. THE CHANCES FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WARM. HOWEVER... STILL EXPECT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY TO REMAIN WEST OF THE BURN SITE. MIXING HEIGHTS CLIMBING TO 5000 FEET OR BETTER BY MIDDAY... COMBINED WITH TRANSPORT WINDS INCREASING TO 20 MPH OR BETTER OUT OF THE SOUTH...SHOULD PROVIDE GOOD SMOKE DISPERSION TODAY. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (65-75 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 82. MIN HUMIDITY........49 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 14 MPH. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 14 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3700-5500 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 8 TO 17 MPH INCREASING TO 20 TO 28 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR EARLY...FAIR AT IGNITION TIME...INCREASING TO EXCELLENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM SKY (%).............69 67 64 61 WEATHER COV.........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP................71 77 80 80 RH..................71 58 51 51 20 FT WIND..........S 8 S 10 S 11 S 10 20 FT WIND GUST.....20 25 25 25 EYE LEVEL WIND......S 6 S 7 S 8 S 8 EYE LEVEL GUST......20 25 25 25 MIX HGT (FT)........2300 5000 5500 3700 TRANSPORT WIND......S 15 S 20 S 25 S 26 CWR.................40 30 30 30 HAINES INDEX........3 3 4 4 VRATE MPH-FT/1000...36 96 140 97 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 59. MAX HUMIDITY........84 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTH WINDS 8 TO 12 MPH. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 8 TO 12 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING. CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......2200 FT AGL DECREASING TO 200 FT AGL EARLY IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 24 MPH DECREASING TO 10 TO 13 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD EARLY...BECOMING POOR DURING THE EVENING. TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............59 58 57 56 56 55 WEATHER COV.........CHANCE WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP................79 74 70 68 65 64 RH..................52 62 71 73 81 81 20 FT WIND..........S 10 S 8 S 8 S 8 S 7 S 6 20 FT WIND GUST.....25 20 15 15 15 10 EYE LEVEL WIND......S 7 S 6 S 6 S 6 S 5 S 5 EYE LEVEL GUST......25 20 15 15 15 10 MIX HGT (FT)........2200 500 400 400 400 300 TRANSPORT WIND......S 24 SE 21 S 20 S 15 S 12 S 12 CWR.................30 10 10 10 10 10 HAINES INDEX........4 4 3 4 4 4 VRATE MPH-FT/1000...53 10 9 6 4 3 $$ FORECASTER...BAK REQUESTED BY...NATHAN HUDSON TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120319.CCFPD.01/ILX