FNUS71 KCTP 201243
FWSCTP

SPOT FORECAST FOR SHRIVER S RIDGE  2...BOF, FD#20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
843 AM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON MARCH 21.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE.

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH MID-WEEK. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL STAY ABOVE 40 PERCENT.
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTH OF THE
KEYSTONE STATE SHOULD BRING WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE RAINFALL TO THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND...ALONG WITH BY A SLIGHT COOL DOWN TO MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING.
MIN HUMIDITY........56 PERCENT.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1800 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 5100-6100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 1 TO 3 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 6 TO
                    7 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING
                    NORTHEAST 1 TO 2 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    AFTERNOON...BECOMING SOUTHEAST LATE.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............49     46     43     39
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV............
RH..................81     69     60     57
MIX HGT (FT)........1800   4000   5900   5900
TRANSPORT WIND......S 6    W 6    N 1    SE 1
LAL.................1      1      1      1
HAINES INDEX........4      4      3      3

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY.
MAX HUMIDITY........91 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH UNTIL EARLY
                    MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3200-4400 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 8 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).............33     28     31     35     38     38
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV............
RH..................60     69     75     81     87     89
20 FT WIND..........S 5    S 5    S 5    S 5    S 3    S 3
20 FT WIND GUST.....                            5      5
MIX HGT (FT)........4400   2200   800    300    300    300
TRANSPORT WIND......S 5    S 7    S 8    S 7    S 5    SW 3
LAL.................1      1      1      1      1      1
HAINES INDEX........4      3      3      3      4      4

$$
FORECASTER...WFO CTP/RXR
REQUESTED BY...CRAIG ALDENDERFER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20120321.SHRIV.01/CTP