FNUS73 KDVN 211309
FWSDVN

SPOT FORECAST FOR CHINKAPIN WILDFLOWERS...LOUISA COUNTY CONSERVATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
809 AM CDT WED MAR 21 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 CDT ON MARCH 21.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
A STORM SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
MISSOURI THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM OVER
CENTRAL IOWA WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. EXPECT SOAKING RAINS THURSDAY
WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURE.........64 AT IGNITION...MAX 78.
RH..................70 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 48 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND BECOMING SOUTHEAST 8 TO 17
                    MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
CWR.................20 PERCENT.
LAL.................NONE.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......AROUND 1000 FT AGL EARLY INCREASING TO 4500-5500
                    FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 6 TO 14 MPH INCREASING SOUTH AT 30 TO
                    35 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

TIME (CDT)      10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM   6 PM
SKY COVER.......CLOUDY MCLDY  MCLDY  CLOUDY MCLDY
WEATHER COV.....S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP............64     71     75     77     75
RH..............70     55     48     50     54
EYE LEVEL WIND..E 2    SE 9   S 12   S 11   SE 8
EYE LVL WND GST.5      15     25     20     15
MIX HGT (FT)....400    2900   4700   5300   2900
TRANSPORT WIND..E 8    SE 25  S 35   S 30   SE 20
HAINES INDEX....4      4      4      3      4

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 60.
RH..................MAX 90 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH.
CWR.................10 PERCENT INCREASING TO 20 PERCENT AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
LAL.................NONE.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......AT OR BELOW 1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 7 TO 15 MPH.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
                    ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 67.
RH..................MIN 73 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
CWR.................80 PERCENT.
LAL.................3
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......AROUND 1200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3800-4800 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 8 TO 16 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...LE
REQUESTED BY...KATIE HAMMOND
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20120321.CHINK.01/DVN