FNUS73 KILX 201843 FWSILX SPOT FORECAST FOR EMIQUON NORTH...THE NATURE CONSERVANCY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN, IL 143 PM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 CDT ON MARCH 21. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THESE WINDS AND MIXING HEIGHTS OF 5000 FEET OR HIGHER WILL PROVIDE GOOD SMOKE DISPERSION. A SLOW MOVING WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT THE REGION THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES THROUGH. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 81. MIN HUMIDITY........42 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 14 MPH INCREASING TO 17 TO 19 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 14 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH INCREASING TO 17 TO 19 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4500-6100 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO 32 TO 38 MPH. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR OR VERY LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR EARLY...FAIR AT IGNITION TIME...BECOMING EXCELLENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............69 43 40 36 32 28 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP................62 64 69 74 78 80 RH..................78 73 62 52 47 42 20 FT WIND..........S 5 SE 6 S 10 S 14 S 15 S 14 20 FT WIND GUST..... 10 20 30 30 30 EYE LEVEL WIND......S 4 SE 4 S 7 S 10 S 11 S 11 EYE LEVEL GUST...... 10 20 30 30 30 MIX HGT (FT)........BLW100 1200 3700 5000 5800 6000 TRANSPORT WIND......S 9 S 15 S 26 S 28 S 32 S 38 CWR.................10 10 10 10 10 10 HAINES INDEX........3 3 3 4 4 5 VRATE MPH-FT/1000...0 18 98 141 187 229 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 63. MAX HUMIDITY........73 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHEAST WINDS 8 TO 15 MPH. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 8 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......3400-4400 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300-400 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 29 TO 36 MPH BECOMING SOUTHEAST 14 TO 15 MPH. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING POOR AFTER SUNSET. TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............32 37 51 65 68 66 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP................79 75 72 70 68 67 RH..................44 50 57 63 68 70 20 FT WIND..........S 12 S 10 SE 8 SE 7 SE 7 SE 6 20 FT WIND GUST.....25 20 20 15 15 15 EYE LEVEL WIND......S 9 S 7 SE 6 SE 5 SE 5 SE 5 EYE LEVEL GUST......25 20 20 15 15 15 MIX HGT (FT)........4400 2300 500 300 400 400 TRANSPORT WIND......S 36 S 29 SE 21 SE 15 SE 14 SE 15 CWR.................10 10 10 10 10 10 HAINES INDEX........5 5 4 3 3 3 VRATE MPH-FT/1000...161 67 11 4 5 6 .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 81. MIN HUMIDITY........47 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHEAST WINDS 9 TO 15 MPH. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 9 TO 15 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5600-6800 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 13 TO 18 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTH 26 TO 35 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 6 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH EARLY IN THE DAY...TO HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR EARLY...FAIR AT IGNITION TIME...BECOMING EXCELLENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............64 63 61 59 59 63 WEATHER COV......... S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE........NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP................65 66 70 75 78 80 RH..................75 73 63 54 48 47 20 FT WIND..........SE 7 SE 8 S 10 S 11 S 12 S 11 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 15 20 25 25 20 EYE LEVEL WIND......SE 5 SE 6 S 7 S 8 S 9 S 8 EYE LEVEL GUST......15 15 20 25 25 20 MIX HGT (FT)........300 700 2100 5200 6800 6100 TRANSPORT WIND......SE 13 SE 18 S 32 S 35 S 33 S 32 CWR.................10 20 20 20 20 20 HAINES INDEX........4 4 3 4 6 6 VRATE MPH-FT/1000...3 13 69 180 227 193 $$ FORECASTER...HJS REQUESTED BY...THARRAN HOBSON TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120321.EMIQU.01/ILX