FNUS73 KJKL 202315 FWSJKL SPOT FORECAST FOR SHELTON COPPERAS...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 715 PM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON MARCH 21. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN DOMINANT THROUGH MIDWEEK. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS COMPARED TO TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. AN EXTREMELY ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT AT THE PROJECT LOCATION... BUT THE PROBABILITY OF THIS IS ONLY ABOUT 10 PERCENT. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 54 VALLEY...61 RIDGE. HUMIDITY............MAX 92 PERCENT VALLEY...78 PERCENT RIDGE. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS. SURROUNDING RIDGE...SOUTH SOUTHEAST 3 TO 5 MPH...SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AT 3 TO 5 MPH AROUND 0400. RIDGETOP WIND.......SOUTH SOUTHEAST 3 TO 5 MPH...SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AT 3 TO 5 MPH AROUND 0400. POP.................10 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EDT) 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM 6 AM SKY (%).........24 27 27 17 21 25 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............78 73 66 63 60 58 RH..............43 55 70 75 82 87 20 FT WIND......E 2 SE 2 SE 1 SE1 SE 1 SE 1 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5 5 .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. TEMPERATURE.........66-68 VALLEYS AND 70-73 RIDGES AT IGNITION... MAX 82-85. HUMIDITY............65-73 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 32-36 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH AT 3-6 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE BECOMING SOUTH 5-8 MPH AROUND 1100...THEN SHIFTING TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT 3-6 MPH AROUND 1600. SURROUNDING RIDGE...SOUTH 4-7 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH 6-9 MPH AROUND 1000...THEN SHIFTING TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT 4-7 MPH AROUND 1600. RIDGETOP WIND.......SOUTH 4-7 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH 6-9 MPH AROUND 1000...THEN SHIFTING TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT 4-7 MPH AROUND 1600. POP.................10 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5. MIXING HEIGHT.......1700-2000 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 7600-7800 FT AGL MAX. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 8 MPH AT IGNITION...BECOMING SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10 MPH AROUND 1400. DISPERSION INDEX....14 AT IGNITION...73 MAX. VENT RATE...........13930 KNOT-FT AT IGNITION...73040 KNOT-FT MAX. TIME (EDT) 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM 6 PM SKY (%).........33 37 41 49 52 52 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............57 68 73 78 81 80 RH..............91 68 56 40 35 38 20 FT WIND......SE 2 S 5 S 8 S 7 SSE 5 SSE 3 20 FT WIND GUST.5 12 12 10 10 5 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 4 4 4 $$ FORECASTER...PELTON REQUESTED BY...DISPATCH TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120321.SHELT.01/JKL