FNUS73 KMPX 211349
FWSMPX

SPOT FORECAST FOR GROTE...U.S. FISH & WILDLIFE SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
849 AM CDT WED MAR 21 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 CDT ON MARCH 21.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

THE BURN SITE IS VERY CLOSE TO THE CLOUD EDGE...SO EXPECT MORE
SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BACK EDGE SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE
EAST. CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFIC TIMING OF THE CLEARING IS NOT
VERY HIGH. THE CLEARING WILL OBVIOUSLY INFLUENCE THE WARMING AND
RH VALUES AT THE TIME OF THE BURN. THE FORECAST WILL BE TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WARMING AND LOWER RH IF THE CLOUDS LINGER
LONGER THAN EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THE AIR IS QUITE DRY JUST WEST OF
THE CLOUD EDGE. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN ARRIVE TOMORROW.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY.
TEMPERATURE.........60 AT IGNITION...MAX 64.
RH..................46 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 38 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTH AT 4 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH
                    EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING LIGHT
                    LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE AT IGNITION...MAX 5.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (700-18400).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4300-5400 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHEAST 2 TO 6 MPH.

TIME (CDT)      11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM   7 PM   9 PM
SKY (%).........MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY
WEATHER COV.....S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE   NONE
TEMP............50     60     63     64     61     56
RH..............65     46     38     37     44     53
20 FT WIND......N 3    N 4    NE 5   NE 5   E 4    E 3
20 FT WIND GUST.5      5      10     10     5      5
HAINES INDEX....5      5      5      5      4      4

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY.
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
                    CHANCE OF RAIN 20 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 45.
RH..................MAX 89 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 5 TO 7 MPH AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY. CHANCE OF
                    RAIN 70 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 60.
RH..................MIN 72 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (2600-31000).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1900 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHEAST 14 TO 22 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...FRANKS
REQUESTED BY...SETH GRIMM
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20120321.GROTE.01/MPX