FNUS73 KPAH 211218 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR ONE HORSE GAP...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 718 AM CDT WED MAR 21 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 CDT ON MARCH 21. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRUDGE EASTWARD INTO THE HEARTLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AS IT DOES...WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE QUAD STATE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. THE PRECIPITATION WILL IMPACT MAINLY SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN MOVE INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA ON THURSDAY. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTIVITY THURSDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL END SATURDAY NIGHT AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........73 AT IGNITION...MAX 83. RH..................52 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 37 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHEAST AT 11 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE SOUTHEAST WINDS 8 TO 13 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5. MIXING HEIGHT.......1200 FT AGL AT IGNITION...INCREASING TO 4600-5700 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 9 TO 17 MPH INCREASING TO 24 TO 32 MPH BY LATE MORNING. TIME (CDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........PC PC PC PC PC PC PC MC MC WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............73 75 78 79 80 81 82 81 80 RH..............52 49 47 45 43 41 39 40 43 20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE S S S SE SE SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD..9 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 7 20 FT WIND GUST.20 25 25 25 25 25 25 20 15 MIX HGT (KFT)...1.2 2.4 3.8 5.0 5.6 5.7 5.5 5.2 4.6 TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S SE TRANSP WIND SPD.30 32 32 32 32 32 31 30 29 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 63. RH..................MAX 82 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH. CWR.................0 PERCENT INCREASING TO 30 PERCENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM SKY (%).........MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY CLOUDY WEATHER COV..... CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............78 73 70 68 65 64 RH..............50 59 65 69 75 79 20 FT WIND......SE 6 SE 6 SE 6 SE 6 SE 5 SE 5 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 CWR.............0 0 0 30 30 30 HAINES INDEX....4 3 3 3 3 3 .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 69. RH..................MIN 65 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH BECOMING LIGHT. CWR.................60 PERCENT INCREASING TO 70 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 1900-2800 FT AGL IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8 TO 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 10 AM 1 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY MCLDY WEATHER COV.....CHANCE LIKELY DEFNTE DEFNTE WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............63 66 67 68 RH..............80 76 70 68 20 FT WIND......S 5 S 4G5 S 4G5 S 4G5 MIX HGT (FT)....300 2200 2800 2400 TRANSPORT WIND..S 9 S 8 W 13 W 12 CWR.............60 60 70 70 HAINES INDEX....3 3 2 3 $$ FORECASTER...PRESLEY REQUESTED BY...FRANK PAUKERT TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120321.ONEHO.01/PAH