FNUS73 KPAH 211306 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR SWEEZIE PEAVINE RX...NATIONAL PARK SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 806 AM CDT WED MAR 21 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0830 CDT ON MARCH 21. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRUDGE EASTWARD INTO THE HEARTLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AS IT DOES...WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE QUAD STATE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. FOR THE CURRENT PRESCRIBED BURN...WE EXPECT MUCH OF THE MORNING TO REMAIN DRY...WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTIVITY LATE THURSDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL END SATURDAY NIGHT AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING...THEN SHOWERS LIKELY AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........68 AT IGNITION...MAX 73. RH..................59 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 52 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHEAST AT 7 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE SOUTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 12 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. CWR.................0 PERCENT INCREASING TO 60 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4. MIXING HEIGHT.......1300 FT AGL AT IGNITION...INCREASING TO 3000-4200 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 18 TO 25 MPH INCREASING TO 29 TO 39 MPH. TIME (CDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW TEMP............68 69 70 70 71 71 70 70 69 69 67 RH..............59 57 55 54 53 53 54 55 55 58 63 20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD..5 6 6 7 7 8 9 10 10 10 9 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 20 20 20 20 25 20 20 MIX HGT (KFT)...1.0 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.8 2.5 3.3 3.9 4.2 4.1 TRANSP WIND DIR.SE SE SE SE S S S SE SE SE SE TRANSP WIND SPD.20 22 23 25 29 31 33 37 38 39 38 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 50 50 50 50 50 50 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 3 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 54. RH..................MAX 90 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. CWR.................80 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2300-3800 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1800-2500 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 29 TO 35 MPH BECOMING WEST 13 TO 22 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST 3 TO 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM SKY (%).........CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY WEATHER COV.....LIKELY DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............67 63 60 59 57 55 RH..............73 79 83 85 88 88 20 FT WIND......SE 7 S 5 S 3 SW 3 S 2 S 2 20 FT WIND GUST.10 5 5 5 5 MIX HGT (FT)....3800 2300 1800 2500 2200 1900 TRANSPORT WIND..S 35 S 22 SW 14 W 13 SW 7 S 3 CWR.............80 80 80 80 80 80 HAINES INDEX....3 3 2 2 2 2 .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY EARLY IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 68. RH..................MIN 48 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR VERY LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2100-3300 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 6 TO 9 MPH. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 10 AM 1 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........MCLDY MCLDY PCLDY PCLDY WEATHER COV.....LIKELY CHANCE S CHC WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE TEMP............55 60 65 67 RH..............87 69 56 51 20 FT WIND......S 2G5 S 3G5 S 5 S 5G10 MIX HGT (FT)....2100 2900 3200 3200 TRANSPORT WIND..SE 6 S 9 S 8 SE 8 CWR.............0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....3 4 4 5 $$ FORECASTER...PRESLEY REQUESTED BY...LEE DUEKER TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120321.SWEEZ.01/PAH