FNUS73 KAPX 221242
FWSAPX

SPOT FORECAST FOR BLUE BERRY...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
842 AM EDT THU MAR 22 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1630 EDT ON MARCH 22.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCAL POINT
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
BURN SITE THROUGH THIS MORNING. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A
STRAY SHOWER OR STORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME FRAME LOOKS
TO BE WELL WEST OF THE BURN AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. LIGHT EAST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST SHORTLY BEFORE SUNSET.
WINDS MAY BE A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES...BUT NOT AS BAD AS WHAT WAS
SEEN YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...ALTHOUGH
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD WARMTH IS STILL EXPECTED. THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT AND WINDS OFF LAKE HURON WILL HELP KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY
ELEVATED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
                    THE MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE.........71 AT IGNITION...MAX 71.
RH..................57 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 55 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST 5 TO 9 MPH.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 9 TO 17 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100-1500 FT AGL.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (300) AT IGNITION. MAX...GOOD (300).

TIME (EDT)      4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........69  71
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............71  71
RH..............57  57
20 FT WIND DIR..E   E
20 FT WIND SPD..7   7
20 FT WIND GUST.15  15
HAINES INDEX....4   4
SMOKE DISP......300 200

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT).
                    CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 46.
RH..................MAX 96 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 4 TO 7 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........72  74  74  76  80  82  83  83  83  85  88  92
WEATHER COV.....                    SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE....                    RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TEMP............70  69  63  59  56  55  53  52  51  50  50  49
RH..............55  55  62  69  77  77  80  83  83  86  86  89
20 FT WIND DIR..E   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT WIND SPD..7   6   6   5   5   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
20 FT WIND GUST.15  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10

$$
FORECASTER...NICK SCHWARTZ
REQUESTED BY...BSTEARNS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20120322.BLUEB.01/APX