FNUS71 KBOX 221356 FWSBOX SPOT FORECAST FOR RI NWR UNIT 9...USFWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 956 AM EDT THU MAR 22 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 EDT ON MARCH 22. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... FOG IS ANTICIPATED TO LAST INTO THE MIDDAY HOURS UNDER SURFACE SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH...DISSIPATING AND MOVING OFFSHORE JUST PRIOR TO IGNITION TIME ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF RHODE ISLAND. SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER AT IGNITION TIME AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH LIKELY RESULTING IN MARITIME AIR TO CONTINUALLY FUNNEL OVER THE BURN SITE...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF AROUND 70 PERCENT FORECASTED. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL AND LIMIT MIXING HEIGHTS. IF SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO WARM UP TO 70 DEGREES AT THE BURN SITE PER NINIGRET RAWS /NINR1/ THEN MIXING HEIGHTS OF 2500 FT AGL UP TO 3000 FT AGL SHOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH BETTER VENTILATION RATES. AS FOR FRIDAY AROUND THE SAME TIME OF 1 PM IGNITION...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PROGRESSED THROUGH THE BURN SITE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD REMAINING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND BY ANTICIPATED IGNITION TIME. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED...BUT MAY BECOME VARIABLE DUE TO SEA-BREEZE FRONTS PROGRESSING INTO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. THEREFORE...VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF RHODE ISLAND AT IGNITION TIME. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AT IGNITION WILL BE AROUND 45 PERCENT WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND THE UPPER 60S DUE TO THE ONSHORE INFLUENCE OF MARITIME AIR. IF SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM IN EXCESS OF 70 DEGREES... MIXING HEIGHTS MAY EXCEED 2000 FT ALLOWING THE MIX-DOWN OF NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 MPH TO THE SURFACE AND BETTER VENTILATION RATES... YET CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOW. DO NOT FEEL FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A DRIER AIRMASS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........AREAS OF DENSE FOG EARLY...BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........66 AT IGNITION...MAX 68. RH..................68 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 65 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 9 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH THROUGH AFTERNOON. CWR.................0 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL AT IGNITION...POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 3000 FT AGL IF SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM IN EXCESS OF 70 DEGREES. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 17 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR /8300 KNOT-FT/ AT IGNITION IF LOW MIXING HEIGHTS ARE THE RESULT OF COOL SURFACE TEMPERATURES. IF SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXCEED 70 DEGREES...THEN RATES MAY BECOME GOOD /AROUND 50000 KNOT-FT/. TIME (EDT) 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).............32 20 18 16 14 WEATHER COV.........ARS WEATHER TYPE........FOG TSTM COV............ TEMP................66 67 67 66 64 RH..................68 65 65 68 73 20 FT WIND DIR......SW SW SW SW SW 20 FT WIND SPD......7 8 8 8 8 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 15 15 15 15 MIX HGT (KFT).......0.6 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW SW SW SW SW TRANSP WIND SPD.....16 17 16 15 15 LVORI...............3 3 3 4 4 ADI.................18 19 18 16 16 CWR.................0 0 0 0 0 VRATE KT-FT/1000....8 10 8 6 4 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. AREAS OF FOG. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 51. RH..................MAX 100 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH UNTIL JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE...THEN BECOMING NORTH 5 TO 6 MPH LATE. CWR.................10 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......100-200 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 9 TO 14 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO POOR (500-2800 KNOT-FT). TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).............13 12 12 16 21 26 27 28 30 34 39 44 WEATHER COV......... ARS ARS ARS ARS ARS ARS ARS ARS ARS ARS WEATHER TYPE........ FOG FOG FOG FOG FOG FOG FOG FOG FOG FOG TSTM COV............ TEMP................61 58 55 54 53 53 52 52 52 52 53 53 RH..................78 86 96 96 100 96 96 96 93 93 93 93 20 FT WIND DIR......SW SW SW SW W W W W W NW N N 20 FT WIND SPD......7 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 4 4 5 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 10 10 10 10 10 10 5 5 5 10 10 MIX HGT (KFT).......0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW SW SW SW SW W W W W W NW NW TRANSP WIND SPD.....14 14 13 13 12 12 10 10 9 9 9 10 LVORI...............5 5 6 6 7 7 6 7 6 6 6 6 ADI.................15 11 10 10 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 7 CWR.................0 0 0 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 VRATE KT-FT/1000....3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 68. RH..................MIN 39 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH LATE. CWR.................10 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......100-2000 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 7 TO 10 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (600-14000 KNOT-FT). TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).............39 34 30 37 44 51 42 34 25 37 55 73 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........ TSTM COV............ TEMP................53 54 54 57 60 63 66 67 67 67 66 64 RH..................89 86 83 75 67 60 49 43 39 39 40 43 20 FT WIND DIR......N N N NE NE NE NE N N N W S 20 FT WIND SPD......5 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 5 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 10 5 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (KFT).......0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.5 1.6 1.8 2.0 1.4 0.9 0.3 TRANSP WIND DIR.....N N NE NE NE NE NE NE NE N N NW TRANSP WIND SPD.....10 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 LVORI...............5 5 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 ADI.................7 7 7 7 6 17 17 18 20 13 7 5 CWR.................10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 VRATE KT-FT/1000....1 1 1 5 8 12 12 13 14 9 5 2 $$ FORECASTER...SIPPRELL REQUESTED BY...DAVE WALKER TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120322.RINWR.01/BOX