FNUS73 KDTX 221952 CCA
FWSDTX

SPOT FORECAST FOR PROPAGATION FIELD...MI DNR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
352 PM EDT THU MAR 22 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1600 EDT ON MARCH 22.

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
WHILE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS MAINTAINED CONTINUED RECORD WARMTH
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO
DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE I-69 CORRIDOR. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BOTTOM
OUT BETWEEN 30 AND 40 PERCENT SOUTH FOR METRO DETROIT THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT LOCALLY HIGHER, 40 TO 50 PERCENT, NEAR THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE IN
THE VICITY OF THE PROPAGATION FIELD BURN SITE WHERE LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS OF 10 MPH OR LESS WILL BE COMING OFF OF LAKE ERIE.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE
                    OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
TEMPERATURE.........73 AT IGNITION...MAX 76.
RH..................45 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 38 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 3 TO 7 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100 FT AGL.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4.
VENTILATION RATE....POOR (MAX...100).

TIME (EDT)      4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM
SKY (%).........32  36  41  45
WEATHER COV.....SHC SHC SHC SCH
WEATHER TYPE....TRW TRW TRW TRW
TEMP............73  74  72  71
RH..............48  49  51  57
20 FT WIND DIR..SW  S   S   SE
20 FT WIND SPD..4   5   5   6
20 FT WIND GUST.5
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0
HAINES INDEX....4   4   4   3
VRATE (KT-FT)...100 100 100 100

$$
FORECASTER...CLARK
REQUESTED BY...LEE OSTERLAND
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20120322.PROPA.01/DTX