FNUS71 KBUF 231530
FWSBUF

SPOT FORECAST FOR RUSH OAK OPENINGS...NYSDEC FOREST RANGER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1130 AM EDT FRI MAR 23 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1125 EDT ON MARCH 23.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK BACK DOOR COOL FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF OUR REGION TODAY AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS...BUT STILL
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO NEAR ROCHESTER IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE PRESCRIBED BURN AREA TODAY WITH A MIX OF
SUN AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED NEAR RUSH.

.TODAY...

MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 72.
MIN HUMIDITY........40 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........NORTHEAST WINDS 9 TO 14 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......MAX 3100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 8 TO 17 MPH...BECOMING NORTHEAST 18 TO 22
                    MPH LATE.
SMOKE DISPERSION....MAX 50 (AVERAGE).

TIME (EDT)          11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
TEMP................61  64  67  70  72  72  71
RH..................63  57  51  46  43  42  42
20 FT WIND DIR......E   E   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT WIND SPD......8   10  13  14  14  14  13
20 FT WIND GUST.....10  15  15  20  20  20  15
HAINES INDEX........2   2   2   2   2   2   2
SMK DISPERSION......23  31  39  45  50  49  43

.TONIGHT...

MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 50.
MAX HUMIDITY........80 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........EAST WINDS 8 TO 12 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......MIN 300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 12 TO 21 MPH...DECREASING TO 9 TO 10 MPH
                    LATE.
SMOKE DISPERSION....MIN 3 (POOR).

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
TEMP................69  64  59  56  55  54  53  53  52  51  51  50
RH..................44  51  60  65  67  67  69  70  71  74  76  78
20 FT WIND DIR......NE  E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT WIND SPD......12  10  8   8   8   8   8   8   8   8   9   9
20 FT WIND GUST.....15  15  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
HAINES INDEX........2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
SMK DISPERSION......30  17  7   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

$$

FORECASTER...HITCHCOCK
REQUESTED BY...WILLIAM MEEHAN
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20120323.RUSHO.01/BUF