FNUS75 KRIW 230923 FWSRIW SPOT FORECAST FOR WASHAKIE ASPEN RX...USFS SHF NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY 323 AM MDT FRI MAR 23 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 MDT ON MARCH 23. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS IDAHO TODAY WILL RESULT IN SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND STRONGER WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH SIMILAR HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED. THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WHEN WILL THE BRUNT OF THE SOUTHWEST WINDS MIX TO THE SURFACE TODAY. THEY COULD HOLD OFF FOR THE MOST PART UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...BUT WILL HAVE THEM MIXING DOWN IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH RECORD WARMTH AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PLOW FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE COWBOY STATE MONDAY. EXTREME WINDS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... ...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT... FORECASTER...MURRELL .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (50 PERCENT) LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....55-60. MIN HUMIDITY........AROUND 25 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-8 MPH BY 10 AM...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH BETWEEN 1 PM AND 3 PM. GUSTS TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 MPH BY 1 PM. GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. LAL.................1. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4400 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH...INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (19000 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO VERY GOOD (106800 KNOT-FT) BY AFTERNOON. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS (75 PERCENT). MIN TEMPERATURE.....35-40. MAX HUMIDITY........40-45 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 MPH...DECREASING TO 5-10 AROUND MIDNIGHT. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 20 MPH...DECREASING TO AROUND 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. LAL.................1. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3500 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 1500 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 20 MPH...DECREASING TO AROUND 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (90000 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR (22400 KNOT-FT) AROUND MIDNIGHT. .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....54-58. MIN HUMIDITY........20-25 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-8 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH...INCREASING TO 10-15 MPH. GUSTS TO 25 MPH. LAL.................1. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4300 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 15-20 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR INCREASING TO GOOD. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 14 MPH. .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH. .MONDAY...BREEZY. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS... SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 26 MPH. GUSTS 40 TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE. .TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH. $$ FORECASTER...MURRELL REQUESTED BY...CDC REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120323.WASHA.01/RIW