FNUS75 KRIW 241129
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR WASHAKIE ASPEN RX...USFS SHF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
529 AM MDT SAT MAR 24 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 2045 MDT ON MARCH 23.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

...EXTREME WINDS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A STRONG
COLD FRONT...

A WEAK...SHALLOW COLD FRONT PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
WYOMING LAST NIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS FEATURE WILL BE MUCH
LIGHTER WINDS...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS AND A TAD HIGHER MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY TODAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY TERRAIN
DRIVEN TODAY...BUT COULD BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT TIMES IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THE NORTHERN EXPOSURE OF THE BURN SITE SHOULD
SHIELD THE BURN AREA FROM THE SOUTH WINDS.

BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...NEAR RECORD
WARMTH AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR SUNDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FIRE SITE MONDAY...WITH
EXTREME WESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE BURN SITE. ALSO SOME
SNOWFALL COULD OCCUR...AS WELL AS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AS THIS
STORM SYSTEM PUSHES ACROSS THE COWBOY STATE MONDAY.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...MURRELL

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS (60-75 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....50-55.
MIN HUMIDITY........25-30 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 3-7 MPH BY 10 AM. GUSTS UP
                    TO 15 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH 10-15 MPH
                    BETWEEN NOON AND 2 PM.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4600 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5-10 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 15 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR INCREASING TO FAIR (58500 KNOT-FT) BY
                    EARLY AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS (60-75 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 40.
MAX HUMIDITY........40-45 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLY 3-6 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 10 MPH BY 9 PM. GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 15-20
                    MPH BY AROUND 9 PM.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4600 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1800 FT AGL
                    BY 9 PM.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 15-20
                    MPH BY AROUND 9 PM.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....DECREASING TO POOR (23400 KNOT-FT) BY 9 PM.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....59-63.
MIN HUMIDITY........20-25 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 3-7 MPH BY 10 AM...BECOMING
                    SOUTHWEST 10-15 MPH BETWEEN 1 PM AND 3 PM. GUSTS
                    TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH...INCREASING TO 15-25
                    MPH BY EARLY AFTERNOON. GUST TO 35 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5600 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 25
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (21600 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO VERY GOOD
                    (102500 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 40-45. SOUTHWEST WINDS 15
TO 25 MPH.

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY AND VERY WINDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER
20S. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH. GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH.

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID
40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 14 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 15 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...MURRELL
REQUESTED BY...ANDREW MCWILLIAMS
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20120323.WASHA.02/RIW