FNUS71 KRNK 231407
FWSRNK

SPOT FORECAST FOR MAD ANN...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1007 AM EDT FRI MAR 23 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0958 EDT ON MARCH 23.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER MOST OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
TODAY...BUT GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS
A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO PARTS OF FAR WESTERN VIRGINIA AND THE HIGH COUNTRY
OF NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD INTO THE GREENBRIER
VALLEY AND NEW RIVER VALLEYS THIS EVENING...AND INTO AREAS EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE TONIGHT. STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL
THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH PERIODS
OF SHOWERS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 77...TODAY LOOKS
LIKE A GOOD DAY FOR PRESCRIBED BURNING...AIDED BY LIGHT SOUTHERLY
TRANSPORT WINDS AND DEEP MIXING. THE WEEKEND WILL BE A
WASH...FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TREND THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
PENDING HOW FAST THINGS DRY OUT MONDAY...NEXT BURN WINDOW SHOULD
OPEN UP FOR TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY. A FAST MOVING FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY. WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR THIS FRONT FOR POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN THE
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 80.
MIN HUMIDITY........40 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH
                    AROUND 6 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
CWR (0.01 IN).......30 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1300 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 5900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 1 TO 10 MPH...INCREASING TO 13 TO 15 MPH
                    LATE.

TIME (EDT)          9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).............41     50     53     60     71
WEATHER COV.........              ISOLTD ISOLTD SCTTRD
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV............              ISOLTD ISOLTD SCTTRD
TEMP................58     66     71     79     78
RH..................82     67     56     45     40
20 FT WIND..........NW 0   N 1    SW 3   S 5    S 5
20 FT WIND GUST.....              5      10     15
CWR.................0      10     20     20     30

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). NUMEROUS
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. NUMEROUS SHOWERS.
                    SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 55.
MAX HUMIDITY........97 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. GUSTY
                    AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
                    EVENING.
CWR (0.01 IN).......70 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4400 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL EARLY IN
                    THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 15 MPH.

TIME (EDT)          6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).............66     93     100    100    100    100
WEATHER COV.........SCTTRD SCTTRD NUMRUS NUMRUS NUMRUS NUMRUS
WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV............SCTTRD SCTTRD NUMRUS SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD
TEMP................76     71     68     65     63     61
RH..................44     55     64     71     75     79
20 FT WIND..........S 5    S 3    S 2    S 2    S 2    S 1
20 FT WIND GUST.....10     5      5             5
CWR.................30     40     60     60     70     70

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). SHOWERS LIKELY AND
                    SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 71.
MIN HUMIDITY........58 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO
                    7 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR (0.01 IN).......70 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1600 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3600 FT AGL IN THE
                    LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 18 MPH.

TIME (EDT)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............100    100    95     90     88     87
WEATHER COV.........NUMRUS LIKELY LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY
WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV............SCTTRD CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
TEMP................59     57     61     65     68     69
RH..................86     97     82     71     64     61
20 FT WIND..........S 2    S 3    W 3    W 4    S 5    S 6
20 FT WIND GUST.....5      5      5      5      10     10
CWR.................70     70     70     60     50     60

$$
FORECASTER...WILSON
REQUESTED BY...GWJ NF
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20120323.MADAN.01/RNK