FNUS72 KMHX 241008 FWSMHX SPOT FORECAST FOR MIREY BRANCH BURN...US FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 608 AM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0800 EDT ON MARCH 24. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY...AS A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY...SO ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING. SHOWERS LIKELY. THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 79. MIN HUMIDITY........60 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......MAX 4000 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH...DECREASING TO AROUND 10 MPH LATE. TIME (EDT) 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............91 89 87 80 80 WEATHER COV.........LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TSTM COV............S CHC S CHC S CHC LIKELY LIKELY TEMP................65 71 75 77 77 RH..................90 81 71 62 62 20 FT WIND..........S 5 S 7 S 8 S 10 S 10 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 10 15 20 20 LVORI...............5 4 3 1 1 ADI.................6 10 52 59 37 HAINES INDEX........3 3 3 3 3 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE EVENING...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 58. MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH UNTIL EARLY MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......MIN 300 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH...DECREASING TO AROUND 5 MPH LATE. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............84 83 81 79 77 76 WEATHER COV.........LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TSTM COV............LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY S CHC S CHC S CHC TEMP................73 69 66 63 61 60 RH..................68 78 87 93 97 93 20 FT WIND..........S 8 S 7 S 6 SW 5 SW 4 SW 4 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 10 10 5 5 LVORI...............3 3 4 6 6 6 ADI.................30 29 17 9 8 5 HAINES INDEX........3 4 4 4 3 3 .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73. MIN HUMIDITY........50 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING WEST 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......MAX 4500 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5 TO 10 MPH...DECREASING AROUND 5 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............76 76 73 69 66 72 WEATHER COV.........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TSTM COV............S CHC S CHC S CHC CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE TEMP................58 59 65 70 72 72 RH..................96 90 70 57 51 51 20 FT WIND..........SW 4 W 4 W 5 W 6 W 7 W 6 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 5 10 10 10 LVORI...............7 6 3 2 1 1 ADI.................4 4 3 15 38 32 HAINES INDEX........3 3 3 3 4 4 $$ FORECASTER...DAIL REQUESTED BY...DAVID NELSON TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120324.MIREY.01/MHX