FNUS75 KBOU 270919 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR LOWER NORTH FORK...ELK CREEK FIRE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 300 AM MDT TUE MAR 27 2012 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...TODAY WILL BE WARM AND DRY AGAIN...BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS. GENERALLY LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT ON WEDNESDAY...LIKELY RESULTING IN SOME GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS LATE IN THE DAY AND SOME ENHANCEMENT TO THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STILL WARM AND DRY WITH LESS WIND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER DOWNSLOPE WINDS THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. MODELS STILL HAVE A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM HOWEVER...EXCEPT THAT THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION APPEARS VERY LOW. NOTE...UPSLOPE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROBABLY BE A BIT STRONGER THAN THE VALUES GIVEN IN THE HOURLY TABLE BELOW. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....65-69. MIN HUMIDITY........9-11%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN EAST 6-12 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 20 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST 25 MPH AFTER 1200. MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL RISING TO 11000 FT AGL BY 1300. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 1000...THEN EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR. MIN TEMPERATURE.....35-39. MAX HUMIDITY........40-50%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 6-12 MPH UNTIL 2200...THEN WEST 4-8 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10-15 MPH UNTIL 2200...THEN WEST 4-8 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......LOWERING TO 2000 FT AGL BY 2100...LOWER UNDER INVERSIONS IN VALLEYS. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 2000...THEN POOR...BECOMING VERY POOR IN VALLEYS. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-75. MIN HUMIDITY........8-10%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 MPH INCREASING TO 8-16 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 MPH INCREASING TO 20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......RISING TO 4000 FT AGL BY 1000 AND 10000 FT AGL BY 1400. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1100...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1400...THEN EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR LOWER NORTH FORK. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 03/27-02 8 0 0 46 20 SW 9 15 3 1 W62 2363 W18 38175 P 03/27-03 13 0 0 43 22 SW 8 14 3 1 W63 2388 W13 25336 P 03/27-04 16 0 0 41 24 SW 7 7 3 1 W64 3008 W15 40414 F 03/27-05 16 0 0 40 25 SW 6 6 2 1 W66 3627 W17 55492 F 03/27-06 5 0 0 46 20 SW 5 5 2 1 W64 4246 W20 70570 G 03/27-07 5 0 0 45 22 SW 5 5 2 1 W62 4405 W20 74494 G 03/27-08 5 0 0 36 33 S 5 5 3 1 W58 4565 W20 78418 G 03/27-09 5 0 0 48 23 S 5 5 3 1 W54 4724 W20 82342 G 03/27-10 5 0 0 54 18 S 5 5 3 1 W53 6271 W22 122031 V 03/27-11 5 0 0 61 14 SE 5 5 3 1 W52 7817 W23 161721 E 03/27-12 23 0 0 64 13 SE 5 5 3 1 W51 9364 W25 201410 E 03/27-13 23 0 0 66 11 E 3 3 3 1 W48 10266 W24 215848 E 03/27-14 23 0 0 67 11 NE 3 3 2 1 W46 11169 SW24 230286 E 03/27-15 23 0 0 67 10 NE 3 3 2 1 SW44 12071 SW23 244724 E 03/27-16 23 0 0 67 11 NE 6 6 2 1 SW41 11507 SW23 225776 E 03/27-17 23 0 0 67 12 E 8 13 3 1 W39 10942 SW22 206828 E 03/27-18 20 0 0 65 14 E 9 15 3 1 W37 10377 SW21 187879 E 03/27-19 20 0 0 61 16 E 8 13 3 1 W37 7020 SW15 125405 V 03/27-20 20 0 0 58 19 E 6 6 2 1 W38 3664 S 8 62930 G 03/27-21 20 0 0 49 27 E 3 3 2 1 W39 307 CALM 456 P 03/27-22 20 0 0 46 32 SE 3 3 2 1 W37 273 S 2 597 P 03/27-23 20 0 0 44 36 SW 5 5 3 1 W35 239 SW 3 738 P 03/28-00 0 0 0 43 40 W 6 6 3 1 W32 206 W 5 879 P 03/28-01 0 0 0 41 44 W 7 7 3 1 W31 192 W 6 917 P 03/28-02 0 0 0 40 47 W 7 7 3 1 W30 178 W 6 954 P 03/28-03 0 0 0 39 49 W 7 7 3 1 W30 164 W 7 991 P 03/28-04 0 0 0 39 50 W 7 7 3 1 W29 242 W 7 1511 P 03/28-05 0 0 0 39 49 W 7 7 3 1 W26 319 W 7 2031 P 03/28-06 20 0 0 45 39 W 6 6 3 1 W25 397 W 7 2551 P 03/28-07 20 0 0 44 39 W 5 5 3 1 W25 1850 W 9 18447 P 03/28-08 20 0 0 37 51 SW 5 5 3 1 W25 3302 W10 34344 P 03/28-09 20 0 0 50 31 SW 3 3 3 1 W25 4755 SW13 50241 F 03/28-10 20 0 0 58 22 SW 5 5 2 1 W30 3185 SW 9 39458 P 03/28-11 20 0 0 66 16 S 6 6 2 1 W30 5530 SW13 74958 G 03/28-12 24 2 0 69 13 S 8 13 2 1 W30 7874 SW16 110459 V 03/28-13 24 2 0 72 11 S 9 15 2 1 W30 8843 SW17 133309 V 03/28-14 24 2 0 72 10 S 9 16 2 1 W30 9811 SW18 156159 E 03/28-15 24 2 0 72 9 S10 16 2 1 SW31 10780 SW20 179009 E 03/28-16 24 2 0 73 9 S12 18 2 1 W30 9583 SW18 152923 E 03/28-17 24 2 0 72 9 SW13 21 2 1 W29 8386 SW17 126837 V 03/28-18 15 3 1 70 10 SW13 21 2 1 W28 7189 SW16 100752 V 03/28-19 15 3 1 66 12 SW10 16 2 1 W26 4908 SW13 67743 G 03/28-20 15 3 1 63 14 S 7 7 3 1 SW25 2627 SW 9 34735 P 03/28-21 15 3 1 60 16 S 5 5 3 1 SW24 346 W 6 1727 P 03/28-22 15 3 1 57 18 SW 5 5 3 1 SW24 311 W 7 1890 P 03/28-23 15 3 1 55 21 SW 6 6 4 1 SW25 277 W 9 2053 P 03/29-00 10 3 1 54 22 SW 7 7 4 1 SW26 243 W10 2217 P 03/29-01 10 3 1 52 26 SW 7 7 4 1 SW29 234 W10 2174 P 03/29-02 10 3 1 51 29 SW 7 7 4 1 SW30 225 W10 2132 P 03/29-03 10 3 1 51 31 W 7 7 4 1 SW31 217 W12 2089 P 03/29-04 10 3 1 50 31 W 7 7 4 1 SW32 247 W10 2262 P 03/29-05 10 3 1 49 31 W 6 6 4 1 W32 278 W10 2435 P 03/29-06 14 3 1 49 30 W 6 6 4 1 W31 308 W 9 2607 P 03/29-07 14 3 1 48 31 W 6 6 4 1 W29 1280 W 8 7679 P 03/29-08 14 3 1 40 43 W 6 6 3 1 W25 2252 W 8 12750 P 03/29-09 14 3 1 51 28 W 5 5 3 1 W23 3224 W 7 17821 P 03/29-10 14 3 1 57 22 SW 3 3 3 1 W23 5924 W 9 58158 F 03/29-11 14 3 1 64 16 CALM 1 2 1 W24 8624 W12 98496 G 03/29-12 24 3 1 66 14 CALM 0 2 1 W25 11324 W14 138833 V 03/29-13 24 3 1 68 12 CALM 0 2 1 W25 12563 W14 156635 E 03/29-14 24 3 1 69 12 CALM 1 3 1 W24 13803 W15 174436 E 03/29-15 24 3 1 69 11 E 2 2 3 1 W23 15043 W15 192237 E 03/29-16 24 3 1 69 11 E 2 2 3 1 W22 13561 W13 153174 E 03/29-17 24 3 1 69 11 N 2 2 3 1 W20 12079 SW10 114111 V 03/29-18 26 3 1 67 12 NW 2 2 3 1 W18 10597 SW 8 75047 G 03/29-19 26 3 1 63 16 NW 2 2 1 03/29-20 26 3 1 60 20 NW 3 3 1 03/29-21 26 3 1 57 24 NW 3 3 1 03/29-22 26 3 1 54 27 W 3 3 1 03/29-23 26 3 1 52 30 W 5 5 1 03/30-00 18 3 1 51 31 SW 5 5 1 03/30-01 18 3 1 49 35 SW 5 5 1 03/30-02 18 3 1 48 36 SW 6 6 1 03/30-03 18 3 1 48 36 SW 6 6 1 03/30-04 18 3 1 47 37 SW 6 6 1 03/30-05 18 3 1 46 39 W 7 7 1 03/30-06 39 2 0 46 40 W 7 7 1 KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.1 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E- EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...GIMMESTAD REQUESTED BY...ELK CREEK COMMAND REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20120326.LOWER.02/BOU