FNUS73 KEAX 261339 FWSEAX SPOT FORECAST FOR UNIT 16...USFWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 839 AM CDT MON MAR 26 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 CDT ON MARCH 26. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE SOUTHERLY BY MID- DAY...INCREASING IN SPEED BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH. THE LINGERING SHOWERS TO THE NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE INTO IOWA WITH DRY CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES...ALREADY ABOVE NORMAL...WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY MID-AFTERNOON. RECENT RAINFALL WILL ALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO CREEP BACK UP...WITH RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30 TO LOWER 40 PERCENT RANGE. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 82. MIN HUMIDITY........40 PERCENT. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.30 PERCENT DECREASING TO 10 PERCENT IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 13 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 15 TO 21 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4700 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 16 TO 24 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 28 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM SKY (%).........38 31 38 31 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............70 76 80 82 RH..............57 49 42 40 20 FT WIND......SE 15 S 17 S 21 S 21 20 FT WIND GUST.20 25 30 30 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 63. MAX HUMIDITY........75 PERCENT. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.10 PERCENT INCREASING TO 30 PERCENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 17 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3800 FT AGL DECREASING TO 600-700 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 35 MPH BECOMING SOUTH 15 TO 17 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM SKY (%).........28 36 46 54 58 63 WEATHER COV..... CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............79 73 70 68 66 64 RH..............43 53 58 61 67 72 20 FT WIND......S 17 S 17 S 17 S 17 S 16 S 15 20 FT WIND GUST.25 25 25 25 25 20 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 3 .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 77. MIN HUMIDITY........30 PERCENT. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.10 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 12 TO 15 MPH. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 6 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5400-6400 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 14 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 30 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING WEST 16 TO 18 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM SKY (%).........67 52 31 15 13 10 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............63 65 70 74 76 77 RH..............77 63 47 36 32 30 20 FT WIND......S 14 SW 15 SW 14 W 13 W 14 W 13 20 FT WIND GUST.20 20 20 15 20 15 HAINES INDEX....3 3 4 6 6 6 $$ FORECASTER...DUX REQUESTED BY...SAM VANOURNEY TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120326.UNIT1.03/EAX