FNUS73 KPAH 261632 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR SIMPSON RX...SHAWNEE NATIONAL FOREST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 1132 AM CDT MON MAR 26 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 CDT ON MARCH 26. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD...REACHING THE CAROLINA COAST BY TUESDAY EVENING. AS THE HIGH REACHES THE COAST...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST ACROSS OUR REGION ON TUESDAY. THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING WARMER AIR IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS MISSOURI TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN SLOW DOWN AS IT CROSSES THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR THURSDAY. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........73 AT IGNITION...MAX 75. RH..................47 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 39 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4300 FT AGL AT IGNITION...THEN INCREASING TO 4300-5400 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 3000 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 6 TO 12 MPH. TIME (CDT) 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............73 74 75 75 73 70 RH..............47 46 41 39 40 50 20 FT WIND DIR..NE NE NE NE NE NE 20 FT WIND SPD..4 4 4 4 4 4 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 5 5 MIX HGT (KFT)...4.3 5.0 5.4 5.2 4.3 3.0 TRANSP WIND DIR.E E E E E E TRANSP WIND SPD.7 6 6 6 8 10 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....3 3 4 4 4 4 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MIN 49. RH..................MAX 80 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH. CWR.................0 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......100-1800 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 9 TO 13 MPH. TIME (CDT) 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM SKY (%).........MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR PC PC PC PC WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............67 63 61 59 57 56 55 54 53 52 52 51 RH..............54 62 67 69 72 72 72 71 78 79 79 80 20 FT WIND DIR..NE E E E E E E E E E E SE 20 FT WIND SPD..4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 5 5 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (KFT)...1.8 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 TRANSP WIND DIR.E E E E E E E E SE SE SE SE TRANSP WIND SPD.13 13 12 10 12 12 13 13 12 10 9 9 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MAX 77. RH..................MIN 43 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2800-4200 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 18 MPH INCREASING TO 16 TO 20 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........PC PC PC PC PC PC PC PC PC PC PC PC WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............51 54 58 62 66 69 72 74 75 76 76 75 RH..............71 66 59 56 52 51 49 46 43 43 46 50 20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE S S S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 20 FT WIND GUST. 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 20 10 10 MIX HGT (KFT)...0.3 0.4 0.8 1.3 2.0 2.8 3.5 3.9 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.1 TRANSP WIND DIR.SE SE SE SE S S S S S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.9 10 12 13 14 14 15 17 18 20 18 16 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 $$ FORECASTER...BLANCHARD REQUESTED BY...JON TEUTRINE TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120326.SIMPS.01/PAH