FNUS73 KPAH 270356 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR BUTTERMILK HILL BLOWDOWN UNIT 17...US FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 1056 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 CDT ON MARCH 27. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE HEARTLAND...PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AS THE FRONT STALLS IN SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY NIGHT...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL SUPPLY ENERGY TO A MOIST AIR MASS SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR A RAINY FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THAT. .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........60 AT IGNITION...MAX 77. RH..................60 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 44 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHEAST AT 7 MPH AT IGNITION...BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 12 MPH. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4. MIXING HEIGHT.......2300 FT AGL AT IGNITION...INCREASING TO 3400-3800 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 18 TO 26 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 29 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR PC PC PC PC WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............60 64 67 70 73 74 76 76 74 RH..............60 56 54 53 49 50 48 50 55 20 FT WIND DIR..SE S S S S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 6 7 8 9 10 9 8 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 15 15 15 20 20 20 15 MIX HGT (KFT)...2.3 2.6 2.9 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.8 3.8 3.8 TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S SW TRANSP WIND SPD.20 18 18 18 20 22 24 26 29 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 .TUESDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 59. RH..................MAX 96 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1800-3700 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1100-1500 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 31 TO 35 MPH. TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM SKY (%).........PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY MCLDY WEATHER COV..... S CHC WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR TEMP............73 68 66 64 62 61 RH..............57 68 73 81 84 87 20 FT WIND......S 7 S 6 S 6 SW 6 SW 6 SW 6 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 10 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)....3700 3100 2200 1500 1100 1100 TRANSPORT WIND..SW 31 SW 33 SW 35 SW 35 SW 35 W 35 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 3 .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 80. RH..................MIN 39 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH. CWR.................0 PERCENT INCREASING TO 39 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1400-3100 FT AGL INCREASING 3700 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN DECREASING TO 1600 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 24 TO 33 MPH DECREASING TO 15 TO 22 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 10 AM 1 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........MCLDY MCLDY PCLDY PCLDY WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............60 68 75 78 RH..............93 78 55 43 20 FT WIND......SW 5G10 SW 7G15 W 7G15 W 6G10 MIX HGT (FT)....1400 2700 3700 2600 TRANSPORT WIND..W 33 W 28 W 22 W 17 CWR.............0 40 40 40 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 $$ FORECASTER...TREVINO REQUESTED BY...SCOTT CRIST TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120327.BUTTE.01/PAH